5841-5847 Ontario St · Olcott, NY 14126

$539,900

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 2,428 sqft · MultiFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 1930 0.42 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE!! Owner has combined 3 separate LAKEfRONT parcels containing 3 year-round cottages (2 on 1 lot, 1 vacant lot) which are fully fenced together. Located within walking distance to the historic Olcott Beach, Carousel Park, Krull Park, waterfront shops, restaurants & world-class fishing on Lake Ontario. 5841 Ontario is a 1 BR, 1 bath bungalow/ cottage with 2-story garage, with forced hot air, laundry/mudroom, extra room for dining, office or another bedroom. 5843 Ontario St. is a vacant lot with gazebo & shed. 5845-5847 Ontario are 2 cottages on 1 lot, 5847 Ontario (lakefront) is 2 story, 2-3 BR, 1.5 bath w/ laundry closet in the full bath & large kitchen & di

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Shed
• Gazebo

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• ADJACENT TO OLCOTT MARINA
• GAZEBO
• SHED
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• VIEWS OF THE LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 3 total units with separate gas and electric meters for each unit
• Financial info: Owner pays water; Rent includes water; Operating expenses may include insurance, maintenance, trash, and water/sewer (multi-unit)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Common parking; Gravel parking; On-street parking; Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential multi-use property; Single-story; Has a view
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Composite siding; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Poured foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Deck; Private yard; Fully/partially fenced; Fence; Beach access to Lake Ontario; Lake frontage; See remarks

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating (forced air); Electric heating; Wall furnace; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Sliding glass doors; Natural woodwork; Programmable thermostat; Storm windows; Thermal windows; Wood window frames; Sliding doors; Accessible bedroom; No stairs (single-level access)
• Laundry & utility: Accessible utilities/laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $540k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-268/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#653 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newfane Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #257 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newfane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 450 students, 46% FRL); Newfane Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 343 students, 50% FRL); Newfane Senior High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 435 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($524k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,400 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.52%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $18,939
• Equity at exit: $266,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $136,785
• Equity at exit: $429,981

Cash invested: $151,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14126

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 53.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,831
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$675 /mo · $8,098/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $-1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,723

Max offer price $384,553

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-700	-5% $-887	+0% $-1,074	+5% $-1,260	+10% $-1,447
Rent	-10% $-1,339	-5% $-1,206	+0% $-1,074	+5% $-941	+10% $-808
Rate	-1.0pp $-802	-0.5pp $-936	base $-1,074	+0.5pp $-1,213	+1.0pp $-1,356

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$3,364
Total (4 units)			$3,364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,975
• Closing costs: $16,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $539,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $539,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $539,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $539,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $539,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $539,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $539,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $539,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $539,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $539,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $539,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $539,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $539,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $539,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $539,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $539,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $539,900 Active
18. 2026-01-14
    historical
19. 2025-09-13
    listed $599,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,243
• − Property taxes: −$8,098
• − Insurance: −$2,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,229
• − Management: −$3,229
• − Depreciation: −$15,706
• Taxable loss: −$22,838
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newfane Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620760
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,029
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1911
• State rank: #257 of 590 in NY

Livability — Olcott

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olcott, NY
• City population: 301
• Population (ZIP): 301

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 301.4624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $539,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $599,000 WNYREIS