772 Road 5606 · Dayton, TX 77327

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 159 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.29 ac lot $107/sqft · at area comps Est $146k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready 3-bedroom home with 2 bathrooms on a 1/4 of an acre in Cleveland, TX. This spacious home features an open-concept kitchen open to the family/living room, a separate utility room, and a cleared lot offering ample outdoor space. The primary bedroom includes a large bathroom with a soaker tub. Flexible layout with guest rooms, or multi-generational living. Plenty of space inside and out.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Cleared lot
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM
• CLEARED LOT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.71%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,761
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 2.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,737
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $48,669
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $530	-5% $487	+0% $445	+5% $402	+10% $360
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $376	+0% $445	+5% $513	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $520	-0.5pp $483	base $445	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	0d	1	0.89mi
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	14d	1	1.15mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	17d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-01-13
    listed $150,000 Active 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Move-in ready 3-bedroom home with 2 bathrooms on a 1/4 of an acre in Cleveland, TX. This spacious home features an open-concept kitchen open to the family/living room, a separate utility room, and a cleared lot offering ample outdoor space. The primary bedroom includes a large bathroom with a soaker tub. Flexible layout with guest rooms, or multi-generational living. Plenty of space inside and out.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,843/yr (+$154/mo · 204.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$732
• After-tax cash flow: $4,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready 3-bedroom mobile home is in good condition with a spacious layout and ample outdoor space. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can significantly increase the home's value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A modern, energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs.
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially in a mobile home setting.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can significantly increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A modern, energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially in a mobile home setting. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $150,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.