500 Cuba Ave · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1960 0.31 ac lot $85/sqft · 6% below area Est $134k · 6% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This incredible home has great potential and is ready for you to polish it up and make it your own! With an upgraded metal roof and the original hardwood floors, this nice home is ready for you to put the finishing touches on it. With an additional lot adjoining it to the North, this great property could be your forever home with room to grow, or it could simply be your next income property to add to your portfolio. Located across the street from the Alamogordo, High School (Go Tigers!), and close to shopping, physicians offices and Historic Downtown Alamogordo, this wonderful home is waiting for you!

Key facts

• Upgraded metal roof
• Additional lot
• Close to shopping

Tags

• UPGRADED METAL ROOF
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ADDITIONAL LOT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.97%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,538
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -6.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,914
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $43,664
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $559	+0% $524	+5% $489	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $397	-5% $460	+0% $524	+5% $588	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $556	base $524	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	0.10mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	46d	2	0.66mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	5d	1	0.68mi
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	25d	1	0.75mi
2200 1st St Alamogordo, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1011	$1,979	$1.96	5d	18	0.85mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	45d	1	0.88mi
1104 San Miguel Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,500	$1.43	5d	1	0.89mi
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	16d	1	0.89mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	5d	1	0.92mi
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	25d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 194 DOM
17. 2025-11-18
    price $125,000 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    This incredible home has great potential and is ready for you to polish it up and make it your own! With an upgraded metal roof and the original hardwood floors, this nice home is ready for you to put the finishing touches on it. With an additional lot adjoining it to the North, this great property could be your forever home with room to grow, or it could simply be your next income property to add to your portfolio. Located across the street from the Alamogordo, High School (Go Tigers!), and close to shopping, physicians offices and Historic Downtown Alamogordo, this wonderful home is waiting for you!

18. 2025-11-18
    price $125,000

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    This incredible home has great potential and is ready for you to polish it up and make it your own! With an upgraded metal roof and the original hardwood floors, this nice home is ready for you to put the finishing touches on it. With an additional lot adjoining it to the North, this great property could be your forever home with room to grow, or it could simply be your next income property to add to your portfolio. Located across the street from the Alamogordo, High School (Go Tigers!), and close to shopping, physicians offices and Historic Downtown Alamogordo, this wonderful home is waiting for you!

19. 2025-11-18
    listed $130,000 Active 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    This incredible home has great potential and is ready for you to polish it up and make it your own! With an upgraded metal roof and the original hardwood floors, this nice home is ready for you to put the finishing touches on it. With an additional lot adjoining it to the North, this great property could be your forever home with room to grow, or it could simply be your next income property to add to your portfolio. Located across the street from the Alamogordo, High School (Go Tigers!), and close to shopping, physicians offices and Historic Downtown Alamogordo, this wonderful home is waiting for you!

20. 2025-10-21
    price $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 97.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $5,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $125,000 OCAOR
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $125,000 OCAOR
• 2025-11-18 Listed $130,000 OCAOR
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $130,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $507 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.