3576 Canyon Rdg · Seguin, TX 78155

$222,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $223k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($346/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oralia R Rodriguez El (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 475 students, 83% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,042 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,499
• List price: $222,999
• Delta: -0.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3576 Canyon Rdg	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,162 (0%)	1mo	$222,999	$103	99
3564 Canyon Rdg	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,162 (0%)	1mo	$250,999	$116	98
724 Canyon Run	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,162 (0%)	1mo	$233,999	$108	89
3548 Canyon Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-11%)	1mo	$221,999	$116	76
3557 Canyon Rdg	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-13%)	1mo	$213,999	$114	74
3568 Canyon Rdg	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	2mo	$237,999	$129	73
3573 Canyon Rdg	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-13%)	3mo	$223,999	$119	73
3561 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	2mo	$219,999	$119	72
3577 Canyon Rdg	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	4mo	$235,999	$128	72
3553 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	2mo	$218,999	$118	71
732 Canyon Vw	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-13%)	4mo	$221,999	$118	66
736 Canyon Run	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	2mo	$205,999	$111	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-36,195
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,780
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,345/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,004

Max offer price $222,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $106	+0% $29	+5% $-48	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-52	+0% $29	+5% $109	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $86	base $29	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	0d	1	0.02mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	0d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $222,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-12
   price $224,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-09
   price $225,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $227,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-29
   price $225,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-28
   price $230,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-17
   price $235,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-04-11
   price $242,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-04-09
   price $243,999 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-03-24
    price $263,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-03-20
    price $262,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-03-19
    price $260,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-03-07
    price $259,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

14. 2026-03-05
    listed $258,999 New 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$3,345
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$3,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $1,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with no visible signs of wear or damage. It features a luxurious owner's suite, open-concept layout, and versatile game room, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $224,999 LERA
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $225,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $227,999 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $225,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $230,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $235,999 LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $242,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $243,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $263,999 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $262,999 LERA
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $260,999 LERA
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $259,999 LERA
• 2026-03-05 Listed $258,999 LERA