3488 Boggs Ave · Nice, CA 95464

$167,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1959 5,663 sqft lot Est $122k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Find your perfect country escape in this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom. The open kitchen and living area are great for entertaining guests, wood stove and monitor heater provide warmth and comfort. The sunroom/den/office offers a serene retreat, and the covered parking and storage/shed provide ample space. With a large front yard and additional lot, the potential for growth and development is vast. And, with its close proximity to the lake, park, shopping, restaurants and public transportation, this home is ideal for vacationer's, first-time buyers, and investors alike.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Covered parking
• Sunroom

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• WOOD STOVE
• MONITOR HEATER
• SUNROOM
• COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community recreation: watersports, biking, hiking, fishing, lake, park, access to BLM/national forest

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public/District water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house; One entry level
• Construction: Composition roof; No common walls; Single-family house
• Exterior features: Front yard; Yard; Near public transit; Park nearby; View; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven; Electric stove; Vented exhaust fan; Water heater unit; Eating area
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Kerosene heating; Wood stove; Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Blinds; Open floor plan with kitchen open to family room; Sun room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.1% in Nice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#652 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $167k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,138 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,360
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3470 Beach St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	18mo	$110,000	$127	63
6720 Sayre St	0.05mi	2/1.0	908 (+13%)	17mo	$152,250	$168	62
3150 Cherry St	0.52mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-1%)	14mo	$119,000	$149	58
3887 Dixie Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	720 (-11%)	12mo	$168,000	$233	53
6625 Robinson Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	924 (+15%)	12mo	$140,000	$152	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-16,316
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-599
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95464

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $217	+0% $170	+5% $123	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $112	+0% $170	+5% $228	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $212	base $170	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6667 Blue Heron Dr Apt H Upper Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,298	$2.16	44d	1	1.02mi
6627 Blue Heron Dr Unit A Upper Lake, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,598	$1.78	44d	1	1.03mi
6687 Blue Heron Dr Unit 6607 D Upper Lake, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,598	$1.78	44d	1	1.04mi
6687 Blue Heron Dr Unit 6667 H Upper Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,298	$2.16	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $167,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricestatus $167,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,999 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active
18. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-05-10
    listed $159,999 Active
20. 1994-11-21
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$800/yr (+$67/mo · 170.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$189
• After-tax cash flow: $2,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Lake Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601442
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,872
• Composite: 20.24/100
• National rank: #8624
• State rank: #433 of 517 in CA

Livability — Nice

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #20328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nice, CA
• City population: 2,417
• Population (ZIP): 2,417

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 29% Native American 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.76%
• Current HPI: 177.0701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+140.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $159,999 CRMLS
• 1994-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.