157 Picturesque Dr · Greece, NY 14616

$199,990

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1959 0.28 ac lot Est $227k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 157 Picturesque Drive! Totally renovated highly desirable Greece ranch! This three bedroom, two bath offers an open layout, refinished hardwood floors, brand new appliances, updated kitchen and a newer furnace. Extra room off the kitchen offers an extra 250 sq ft. The screened in porch looks out over the fenced yard. Brand new water heater to be installed prior to close! OPEN HOUSE Sunday April 12th from 11:00am-12:30pm. Delayed negotiations Monday April 13th at 3:00pm.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Renovated
• Open layout

Tags

• RENOVATED
• OPEN LAYOUT
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing (resale) property; Wood siding construction
• Construction: Wood siding; One story
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Porch; Screened porch; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.2755 acres, 80 x 150); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; See remarks / other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-365/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Greece — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#145 in NY, #2,223 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,000 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,798
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
157 Picturesque Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,342 (0%)	0mo	$260,000	$194	96
331 El Mar Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-4%)	2mo	$282,000	$218	75
76 Kartes Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-2%)	8mo	$278,100	$211	73
791 Rumson Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,414 (+5%)	3mo	$230,000	$163	65
89 Picturesque Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+11%)	5mo	$252,000	$169	64
4821 Mount Read Blvd	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,167 (-13%)	10mo	$175,000	$150	64
53 Summit Hill Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	7mo	$225,000	$163	63
122 Kartes Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,482 (+10%)	7mo	$183,000	$123	57
171 Island Cottage Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,192 (-11%)	2mo	$197,000	$165	56
4314 Mount Read Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+4%)	5mo	$277,000	$199	53
68 Kensington Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+8%)	8mo	$250,000	$172	53
146 Summit Hill Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,528 (+14%)	9mo	$230,000	$151	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-34,214
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,758
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14616

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,981/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $194,616

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $26	+0% $-30	+5% $-87	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-106	+0% $-30	+5% $45	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $20	base $-30	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Rumson Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	5d	1	0.59mi
130 N Park Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1120	$2,000	$1.79	45d	1	0.82mi
331 Leonard Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,850	$1.60	5d	1	0.84mi
1255 Latta Rd Greece, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$1,570	$2.23	4d	5	0.85mi
175 English Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1194	$1,975	$1.65	45d	1	0.88mi
37 Linda Dr Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	45d	1	1.27mi
108 Glenbrook Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,850	$1.70	25d	1	1.28mi
262 Jamestown Ter Unit 2 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1242	$2,200	$1.77	45d	1	1.36mi
4 Valley Brook Cir Greece, NY	2.0	1.5	1047	$2,306	$2.20	4d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $199,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,981 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,981 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,981
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$876
• After-tax cash flow: $511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Greece

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #2223

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,863
• Household income: $66,499
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 789.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.14%
• Current HPI: 246.1703
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $199,990 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,981 · +179.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.