1338 Garrard St · Covington, KY 41011

$60,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

3,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BR, 2 BA Large home that needs work. Sold AS-IS. Large rooms-great space.

Key facts

• 3,750 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Listed 18 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Existing structure
• Construction: Brick construction; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Wood window frames; Shingle roof; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (15 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (10 x 10); Bedroom 2 (10 x 10); Bedroom 3 (9 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Primary bath (5 x 11); Second bathroom (8 x 13)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.9% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $60k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.54%
• DSCR: 4.27
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,284
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 E 13th St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,083 (+1%)	1mo	$180,000	$166	84
1930 Glenway Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+1%)	3mo	$245,000	$227	66
326 E 17th St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	992 (-8%)	3mo	$95,000	$96	63
1721 Russell St	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (-2%)	3mo	$195,500	$185	62
1432 Banklick St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (-4%)	2mo	$85,000	$83	60
1210 Wood St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,186 (+10%)	4mo	$150,000	$126	60
1549 Woodburn Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (-0%)	3mo	$215,000	$201	60
423 Hodge St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,164 (+8%)	3mo	$199,500	$171	53
331 W 17th St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,131 (+5%)	2mo	$97,000	$86	49
509 E 20th St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (-8%)	3mo	$139,150	$141	47
1220 Holman St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (+12%)	1mo	$253,000	$210	46
330 W 9th St W	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,234 (+15%)	0mo	$132,500	$107	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $53,281
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.18×
• Total profit: $120,589
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $589/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $1,030

Break-even live

Break-even rent $492

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
344 E 13th St Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	23d	1	0.14mi
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	0.38mi
1914 Eastern Ave Apt 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	23d	1	0.56mi
508 Greenup St Unit 508-02 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	2d	1	0.73mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/18 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	7d	1	0.76mi
128 W 9th St Newport, KY	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,650	$1.63	2d	1	0.85mi
203 W 8th St Newport, KY	2.0	1.5	1456	$2,300	$1.58	21d	1	0.86mi
103 E 3rd St Covington, KY	2.0	2.5	1291	$3,250	$2.52	1d	1	0.92mi
911 Putnam St #2 Newport, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	21d	1	0.95mi
210 W 5th St Newport, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,800	$2.13	3d	15	0.98mi
515 Main St Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,215	$2.37	1d	8	1.02mi
50 W Rivercenter Blvd Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1273	$3,640	$2.86	1d	9	1.08mi
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	7d	1	1.12mi
1044 Washington Ave #2 Newport, KY	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	43d	1	1.21mi
814 Washington Ave Unit 2 Newport, KY	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	1.26mi
929 Boone St Newport, KY	2.0	2.0	1458	$1,495	$1.03	43d	1	1.33mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	1d	10	1.34mi
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$2,365	$1.67	1d	14	1.38mi
1000 Parkvale Ct Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	43d	1	1.40mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1004 1 Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	43d	1	1.41mi
100 Aqua Way Newport, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$3,850	$3.53	1d	4	1.45mi
2335 Alexandria Pike Southgate, KY	2.0	1.0	557	$1,140	$2.04	2d	17	1.48mi
121 E Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,999	$3.03	1d	27	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $60,000
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $85,000 Active
4. 2012-08-24
   soldstatus $6,000 75-char remark

   Show marketing remark (75 chars)

   3 BR, 2 BA Large home that needs work. Sold AS-IS. Large rooms-great space.

5. 2012-04-10
   listed $7,900 75-char remark

   Show marketing remark (75 chars)

   3 BR, 2 BA Large home that needs work. Sold AS-IS. Large rooms-great space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $589 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $589 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$589
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $12,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,904
• After-tax cash flow: $9,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+659.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $60,000 NKMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $85,000 NKMLS
• 2012-08-24 Sold (MLS) $6,000 NKMLS
• 2012-04-10 Listed $7,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $589 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.