Is 40203 Bay Warbler Way in Magnolia, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 4.2% cap rate and $-575/mo modeled cash flow at a $324,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 40203 Bay Warbler Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,498/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D+ Composite 46.27

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +11.7/15.0
Appreciation +10.0/10.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
1% rule +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0

$324,990

40203 Bay Warbler Way · Magnolia, TX 77354

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,642 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,412 sqft lot 2-car garage $123/sqft · 9% below area Est $358k · 9% under $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this spacious home offers 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a great backyard perfect for entertaining. The open-concept layout is flooded with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite is complete with a ensuite bath and walk-in closet. The kitchen features modern appliances and ample storage space. Upstairs you will find 2 additional bedrooms and a spacious game room. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage. All this located on a cul-de-sac lot with no back neighbors! Former model home. Fridge, washer and dryer stay. Low tax rate!

Key facts

Ample storage space
Cul-de-sac lot
Modern appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-575 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (31.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (23.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $223k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,383 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.77% ✗
Cap rate: 4.17%
Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $358,333
List price: $324,990
Delta: -9.31%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40706 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+2%)	0mo	$329,990	$123	83
40722 Barley Straw Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+2%)	3mo	$349,990	$131	82
40743 Barley Straw Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+2%)	4mo	$348,990	$130	81
40603 Goldeneye Pl	0.31mi	4/3.5	2,440 (-8%)	0mo	$335,000	$137	70
40519 Slough Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,558 (-3%)	1mo	$401,900	$157	65
15110 Bank Swallow Pl	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,558 (-3%)	2mo	$402,900	$158	63
15447 Park Perch Pl	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,502 (-5%)	3mo	$329,900	$132	55
40714 Barley Straw Dr	0.29mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,252 (-15%)	0mo	$279,990	$124	54
15208 Tree Swallow Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0	3,014 (+14%)	1mo	$540,000	$179	53
15319 Mountain Plover Pl	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,397 (-9%)	1mo	$359,900	$150	49
15107 Bank Swallow Pl	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,365 (-10%)	2mo	$339,990	$144	46
14522 Montclair Way	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,261 (-14%)	3mo	$285,000	$126	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 18.2%
Equity multiple: 2.47×
Total profit: $134,029
Equity at exit: $292,777

10-year hold

IRR: 16.4%
Equity multiple: 5.53×
Total profit: $412,039
Equity at exit: $631,384

Cash invested: $90,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 54 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $349,445 ($155/sqft)
Median days on market: 88 d
This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -12.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

Home prices YoY: 2.4%
Rents YoY: 0.3%
Active inventory: 1924
Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,498 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,657/yr
Insurance: −$135
HOA: −$154
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
Net cashflow: $-575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,226

Max offer price $223,383

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-391	-5% $-483	+0% $-575	+5% $-667	+10% $-759
Rent	-10% $-772	-5% $-674	+0% $-575	+5% $-477	+10% $-378
Rate	-1.0pp $-412	-0.5pp $-493	base $-575	+0.5pp $-659	+1.0pp $-745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $81,248
Closing costs: $9,750
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	93d	1	0.16mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	93d	1	0.32mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	48d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	93d	1	0.83mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	69d	1	1.02mi
475 Audubons Shearwater Way Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,700	$1.32	12d	1	1.32mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & CompanyAnnual association fee of $1,850

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionCentury builder
Exterior features: Back yard fencingFenceProperty backs to greenbelt/park

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 5 total rooms
Flooring: CarpetTile
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen / family room comboTub with showerCeiling fansKitchen / dining comboProgrammable thermostat
Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $324,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $324,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $324,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $324,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-03

statusdays on market $324,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-31

statusdays on market $324,990 Pending 7 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $324,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $324,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-26

days on marketlisting id $324,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $324,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $324,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $324,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $324,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $324,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $324,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $324,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $324,990 Active 113 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $324,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $324,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $324,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $324,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $324,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $324,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $324,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $324,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $324,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $324,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $324,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $324,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $324,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $324,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $324,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $324,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $324,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $324,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $324,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $324,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $324,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $324,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $324,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $324,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $324,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $324,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $324,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $324,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $324,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $324,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $324,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $324,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $324,990 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $6,657 · $555/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $6,657 · $555/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,974
− Mortgage interest: −$18,204
− Property taxes: −$6,657
− Insurance: −$1,625
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,398
− Management: −$2,398
− HOA: −$1,848
− Depreciation: −$9,454
Taxable loss: −$12,611

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,027
After-tax cash flow: $-3,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious single-family home in a charming neighborhood is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for an investor looking to maximize both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Magnolia ISD
NCES district ID: 4828740
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $71,692
Composite: 39.46/100
National rank: #3958
State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

Score: 73/100
State rank: #222
US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 32,847
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 44,900
Household income: $112,504
Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
Current HPI: 512.87
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-07-24 Listed $324,990 HARMLS
2026-07-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-11 Price Changed $324,990 HARMLS
2026-03-25 Listed $340,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+37.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,657 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…