1103 Lincoln Ave · Louisville, KY 40208

$83,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 645 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 1938 3,484 sqft lot Est $106k · 21% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 Bedrooms, 1 Full Bath, Kitchen, Dining Area1 Car Garage, 1 Car Carport and an unfinished basement.

Key facts

• 3,484 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1938

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No monthly maintenance or association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas service
• Home design: Single family residence (Shotgun style); One story
• Construction: Built in 1938; Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Full yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms — both on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating (1 HVAC unit); Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; 3 closets; Basement present (unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($924 rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frayser Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #670 of 676 statewide, top 100%, 318 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 56% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 5% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $577 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,985 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,780
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2760 Montana Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	676 (+5%)	2mo	$103,000	$152	84
2730 Montana Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	700 (+8%)	11mo	$79,000	$113	71
2815 Montana Ave	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	602 (-7%)	9mo	$60,000	$100	67
1001 Lincoln Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	737 (+14%)	8mo	$135,000	$183	65
1516 Wurtele Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	700 (+8%)	7mo	$115,000	$164	60
1408 Wurtele Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	728 (+13%)	8mo	$133,500	$183	58
1600 Thornberry Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	700 (+8%)	6mo	$82,000	$117	56
1623 Phyllis Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	700 (+8%)	3mo	$92,500	$132	56
1413 Thornberry Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	728 (+13%)	6mo	$137,305	$189	49
1422 Thornberry Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	728 (+13%)	8mo	$125,000	$172	47
1406 Phyllis Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	708 (+10%)	12mo	$116,000	$164	46
1243 Arcade Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	720 (+12%)	2mo	$60,000	$83	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-832
• Equity at exit: $12,450

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $24,705
• Equity at exit: $7,220

Cash invested: $23,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40208

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,252/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $83,500

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $182	+0% $153	+5% $124	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $117	+0% $153	+5% $190	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $174	base $153	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,875
• Closing costs: $2,505
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 Larchmont Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	19d	1	0.44mi
4600 South St Unit PARKWAYE1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$749	$1.07	25d	1	0.47mi
2805 S 4th St #1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$725	$0.97	23d	1	0.55mi
2501 S 4th St Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	897	$3,732	$4.16	5d	1	0.56mi
1637 Thornberry Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	5d	1	0.59mi
1606 Algonquin Pkwy Unit 22 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	626	$750	$1.20	25d	1	0.87mi
623 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	18d	1	0.99mi
1800 S 2nd St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	575	$950	$1.65	18d	7	1.01mi
1111 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	680	$1,100	$1.62	18d	1	1.08mi
1702 S 2nd St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	625	$875	$1.40	25d	1	1.09mi
1521 S 4th St Unit 12 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$795	$1.14	23d	1	1.12mi
1521 S 4th St Unit 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,025	$1.37	25d	1	1.12mi
1521 S 4th St Unit 7 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,125	$1.50	25d	1	1.12mi
1521 S 4th St Apt 8 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	25d	1	1.12mi
4012 Southern Pkwy Unit 8 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$795	$1.32	16d	1	1.16mi
4012 Southern Pkwy Unit 5 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$795	$1.32	25d	1	1.16mi
415 Belgravia Ct Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	25d	1	1.20mi
1459 Saint James Ct Unit 03 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	500	$860	$1.72	25d	1	1.21mi
1459 Saint James Ct Unit 10 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	500	$995	$1.99	25d	1	1.21mi
2138 Crittenden Dr Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	23d	1	1.29mi
309 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	25d	1	1.31mi
538 Lilly Ave Apt 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	500	$775	$1.55	25d	1	1.34mi
554 Camden Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	661	$875	$1.32	25d	1	1.34mi
1836 Algonquin Pkwy Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$650	$1.00	16d	1	1.35mi
1836 Algonquin Pkwy Unit 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	25d	1	1.35mi
1768 W Hill St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	675	$925	$1.37	25d	1	1.36mi
1105 Beecher St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	18d	1	1.42mi
2057 May Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	743	$850	$1.14	25d	1	1.46mi
2057 May Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	734	$850	$1.16	5d	1	1.46mi
1388 S 2nd St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	479	$800	$1.67	25d	1	1.46mi
1388 S 2nd St Apt 6 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	423	$755	$1.78	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $83,500
3. 2026-04-16
   price $85,000
4. 2026-04-06
   price $87,500
5. 2026-03-31
   price $89,000
6. 2026-03-25
   price $89,900
7. 2026-03-23
   price $90,500
8. 2026-03-20
   price $91,000
9. 2026-03-18
   price $92,000
10. 2026-03-16
    price $92,500
11. 2026-03-10
    price $94,000
12. 2026-03-06
    price $94,500
13. 2026-03-02
    price $95,000
14. 2026-02-23
    price $96,000
15. 2026-02-21
    price $96,900
16. 2026-02-16
    price $97,500
17. 2026-02-11
    price $98,000
18. 2026-02-10
    price $98,500
19. 2026-02-09
    price $99,000
20. 2026-01-29
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,252
• − Insurance: −$418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$887
• − Management: −$887
• − Depreciation: −$2,429
• Taxable income: $540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$130
• After-tax cash flow: $1,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 15,605
• Household income: $39,560
• Rent vs Own: 73.8% rent · 26.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.97%
• Current HPI: 240.6261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-16.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $83,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $85,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $87,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $89,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $89,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $90,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $91,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $92,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $92,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $94,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $94,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $95,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $96,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $96,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $97,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $98,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $98,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $99,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $100,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $95 · -28.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.