12530 Kenai Dr · Evansville, IN 47725

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2001 8,000 sqft lot Est $230k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated in Stonecrest subdivision on Evansville’s north side, this brick/vinyl ranch home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 2.5 car attached garage. New hvac in 2025. Home is being sold as-is and is in need of updating. Perfect for an investor or someone that wants to put their personal touch on a home.

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 301 in IN (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mccutchanville Elementary School (math 74% / reading 73%, grade A, #23 of 994 statewide, top 3%, 938 students, 20% FRL); North Junior High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade C, #43 of 330 statewide, top 14%, 929 students, 42% FRL); North High School (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #29 of 369 statewide, top 8%, 1,674 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 508 units permitted in Vanderburgh County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.64%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,405
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12530 Kenai Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,015 (0%)	1mo	$179,900	$177	100
12515 Rolling Meadows Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (-0%)	2mo	$226,000	$223	86
12420 Kenai Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,015 (0%)	13mo	$245,000	$241	86
12505 Rolling Meadows Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (-0%)	15mo	$225,000	$222	76
3525 Crater Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,055 (+4%)	10mo	$239,900	$227	74
3523 Trailstone Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+4%)	15mo	$240,000	$227	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,310
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $13,377
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47725

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,869/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $330	+0% $279	+5% $228	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $198	+0% $279	+5% $360	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $324	base $279	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12922 Kenai Dr Evansville, IN	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,050	$1.42	22d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,869 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,869 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$3,869
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$140
• After-tax cash flow: $3,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803450
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,270
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5471
• State rank: #153 of 301 in IN

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #15047

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 146,793
• Population (ZIP): 19,436

Population outlook (Vanderburgh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,038 people
• By 2030: 188,907 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 190,272 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 188,871 · +1.0%
• By 2075: 180,751 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 163,015 · -12.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vanderburgh

• 2024 margin: R (+12.7) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.7 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+16.9 2012: R+10.8 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.73%
• Current HPI: 179.2534
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $179,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,869 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.