3403 Tidewater Dr · Houston, TX 77045

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1978 5,201 sqft lot $112/sqft · 18% below area Est $194k · 18% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This newly updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath boast a great open floor plan. Discover a bright and open interior with plenty of natural light and a neutral color palette. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Relax in your primary suite offering great closet space. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. The fenced in backyard gives you the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. Don't miss this incredible opportunity.

Key facts

• 5,201 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1978; Stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($887/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,963
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -18.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3314 Boynton Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+5%)	4mo	$218,000	$146	69
13126 Townwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+9%)	6mo	$230,000	$149	69
13434 Woodring Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,241 (-13%)	7mo	$215,000	$173	67
2902 Back Bay Brook Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,424 (0%)	4mo	$234,999	$165	65
13114 White Heather Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-3%)	1mo	$238,500	$173	64
4010 Ebbtide Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-1%)	9mo	$251,000	$178	61
13034 White Heather Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-6%)	1mo	$184,900	$138	58
3219 Windy Royal Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+12%)	6mo	$150,000	$94	57
2910 Meiko Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+11%)	0mo	$260,000	$165	52
4106 Woodmont Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+6%)	8mo	$269,900	$179	47
2810 Tidewater Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (-10%)	2mo	$139,999	$110	44
3422 Angel Ln	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,241 (-13%)	5mo	$178,000	$143	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-25,877
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-35,074
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77045

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,305/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3234 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	24d	1	0.33mi
3239 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,589	$1.21	16d	1	0.35mi
3150 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	8d	1	0.37mi
3135 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	22d	1	0.41mi
3215 Boynton Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	24d	1	0.42mi
3119 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,599	$1.22	44d	1	0.43mi
3103 Kelling St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1311	$1,619	$1.23	8d	1	0.45mi
12806 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,636	$1.79	1d	18	0.47mi
13003 Brentlawn Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$1,380	$0.80	14d	1	0.98mi
14435 Acuna Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,805	$1.21	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $159,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-05-04
    listed $169,000 Active 728-char remark
13. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus
14. 2023-03-16
    soldstatus Sold 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This newly updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath boast a great open floor plan. Discover a bright and open interior with plenty of natural light and a neutral color palette. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Relax in your primary suite offering great closet space. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. The fenced in backyard gives you the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. Don't miss this incredible opportunity.

15. 2023-02-01
    status Pending 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This newly updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath boast a great open floor plan. Discover a bright and open interior with plenty of natural light and a neutral color palette. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Relax in your primary suite offering great closet space. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. The fenced in backyard gives you the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. Don't miss this incredible opportunity.

16. 2023-01-23
    listed $210,000 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    This newly updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath boast a great open floor plan. Discover a bright and open interior with plenty of natural light and a neutral color palette. Step into the kitchen, complete with an eye catching stylish backsplash. Relax in your primary suite offering great closet space. Additional bedrooms provide nice living or office space. The primary bathroom features plenty of under sink storage waiting for your home organization needs. The fenced in backyard gives you the perfect private area to enjoy the outdoors. Don't miss this incredible opportunity.

17. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus
18. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,305 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,305 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$4,305
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$390
• After-tax cash flow: $1,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,563
• Household income: $59,688
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 37% Two or more races 25% White 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Arabic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.49%
• Current HPI: 282.5426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,305 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.