11817 Alpine Pkwy · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$5,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1976 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Foreclosure Auction Ends May 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM EST. Explore this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence set in a peaceful and well-located Port Richey community. The list price is the opening bid for the online auction. Sold As-is. Explore more details and submit your bid through Federa Home App.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Water: Other; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating
• Interior features: Other flooring; Total of 1 room

🔨 Auction listing. The $5,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $216,216 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 64.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11807 Alpine Pkwy	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+3%)	4mo	$120,000	$106	90
7704 Christina Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+3%)	2mo	$260,000	$230	88
11341 Winwood Pl	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,107 (+1%)	1mo	$189,000	$171	68
7513 Kensico Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	936 (-14%)	4mo	$188,750	$202	64
11230 Rhonda Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,046 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$124	64
8222 Leafy Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-4%)	3mo	$187,500	$179	62
12410 Partridge Hill Row	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-4%)	3mo	$235,000	$224	62
7522 Topay Ln	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,201 (+10%)	2mo	$215,000	$179	59
11214 Kapok Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,234 (+13%)	4mo	$299,900	$243	47
7604 Hawthorn Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+15%)	3mo	$325,000	$259	47
11205 Yewtree Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	952 (-13%)	3mo	$165,000	$173	43
7100 Ashwood Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-12%)	2mo	$189,900	$198	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-48,559
• Equity at exit: $32,239

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-67,272
• Equity at exit: $18,694

Cash invested: $60,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,679 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,134
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,243/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,891

Max offer price $191,927

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,054
• Closing costs: $6,486
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	5d	1	0.20mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.25mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.29mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	17d	1	0.29mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	0.29mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	0.29mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	5d	1	0.35mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	0.35mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	0.35mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	0.37mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	0.37mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.38mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.38mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	5d	1	0.38mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	0.40mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.46mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.46mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.48mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	24d	1	0.53mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.55mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	2d	10	0.56mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	23d	1	0.56mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	5d	1	0.66mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	0.72mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	17d	1	0.73mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	0.74mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	24d	1	0.77mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	20d	1	0.79mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	17d	1	0.81mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	24d	1	0.90mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	5d	1	0.92mi
10905 Kingsbridge Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,566	$1.33	5d	1	0.93mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.95mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	24d	1	0.97mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.99mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	24d	1	0.99mi
7202 Palisade Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,100	$0.84	23d	1	1.02mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	5d	1	1.03mi
11430 Rohrman Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	5d	1	1.03mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	10d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $5,000 Active
2. 2001-05-02
   soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,111
• − Property taxes: −$3,243
• − Insurance: −$1,081
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,612
• − Management: −$1,612
• − Depreciation: −$6,290
• Taxable loss: −$5,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,392
• After-tax cash flow: $-622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2001-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,257 · +486.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.