55 Pacifica Ave #139 · Bay Point, CA 94565

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 1998 15 ac lot Est $186k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can invest in something and have it be your own. This sweet home is perfect for any family or individual. All interior of home is painted within approx the last 3 years. Home has central air conditioning and heat. It features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom has a nice relaxing large tub with shower overhead. The Seller is including all appliances including the washer and dryer with the sale of the home. When you step inside you will see mirrored cabinetry in the kitchen and a lovely split floorplan. A spacious deck outside and low maintenance yard to enjoy all year long. This home is close to freeways, shopping and 10 minutes or less to Concord located in an all age park

Key facts

• 15.1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.6% in Bay Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#736 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.07%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,752
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Pacifica Ave #96	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	9mo	$138,500	$144	74
55 Pacifica Ave #142	0.00mi	2/2.0	780 (-10%)	13mo	$165,000	$212	72
55 Pacifica Ave #110	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (+6%)	6mo	$132,000	$143	72
3777 Willow Pass Rd #20	0.63mi	2/1.5	864 (-0%)	3mo	$185,000	$214	65
744 Treasure Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	768 (-12%)	4mo	$165,000	$215	55
3777 Willow Pass Rd #30	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	921 (+6%)	7mo	$239,000	$260	50
617 Bounty Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	909 (+5%)	14mo	$215,000	$237	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,547
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $41,903
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $733	-5% $676	+0% $619	+5% $562	+10% $505
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $531	+0% $619	+5% $707	+10% $795
Rate	-1.0pp $702	-0.5pp $661	base $619	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Pacifica Ave Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,775	$2.05	25d	1	0.17mi
1123 Shoreview Ct Bay Point, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,417	$2.93	4d	9	0.44mi
138 Tammy Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.0	842	$2,300	$2.73	4d	1	0.79mi
2000 Villa Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,890	$3.13	3d	13	0.83mi
2901 Mary Ann Ln Bay Point, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$2,172	$2.92	0d	8	1.16mi
515 Lancaster Ln #138 Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	884	$2,600	$2.94	25d	1	1.17mi
1023 Chadwick Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$2,350	$2.50	5d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $180,000
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $190,000 Active
18. 2021-10-27
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Why rent when you can invest in something and have it be your own. This sweet home is perfect for any family or individual. All interior of home is painted within approx the last 3 years. Home has central air conditioning and heat. It features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom has a nice relaxing large tub with shower overhead. The Seller is including all appliances including the washer and dryer with the sale of the home. When you step inside you will see mirrored cabinetry in the kitchen and a lovely split floorplan. A spacious deck outside and low maintenance yard to enjoy all year long. This home is close to freeways, shopping and 10 minutes or less to Concord located in an all age park

19. 2021-09-10
    status Pending - Show for Backups 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Why rent when you can invest in something and have it be your own. This sweet home is perfect for any family or individual. All interior of home is painted within approx the last 3 years. Home has central air conditioning and heat. It features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom has a nice relaxing large tub with shower overhead. The Seller is including all appliances including the washer and dryer with the sale of the home. When you step inside you will see mirrored cabinetry in the kitchen and a lovely split floorplan. A spacious deck outside and low maintenance yard to enjoy all year long. This home is close to freeways, shopping and 10 minutes or less to Concord located in an all age park

20. 2021-08-18
    listed $130,000 New 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    Why rent when you can invest in something and have it be your own. This sweet home is perfect for any family or individual. All interior of home is painted within approx the last 3 years. Home has central air conditioning and heat. It features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom has a nice relaxing large tub with shower overhead. The Seller is including all appliances including the washer and dryer with the sale of the home. When you step inside you will see mirrored cabinetry in the kitchen and a lovely split floorplan. A spacious deck outside and low maintenance yard to enjoy all year long. This home is close to freeways, shopping and 10 minutes or less to Concord located in an all age park

21. 2014-01-26
    historical
22. 2014-01-26
    listed New
23. 2007-01-10
    soldstatus $49,500
24. 2006-12-23
    historical
25. 2006-10-23
    listed $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $5,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $6,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bay Point

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #21661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Point, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+263.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $180,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $190,000 BAREIS
• 2021-10-27 Sold (MLS) $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-09-10 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-08-18 Listed $130,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-01-26 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-01-26 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-01-10 Sold (MLS) $49,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-12-23 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-10-23 Listed $49,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $290 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.