Berkeley Plan · Ceres, CA 95307

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542893A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Come see your new home today!! Welcome to Colony Park, and all aged park active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.80 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Ceres, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry and pantry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities, and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a covered porch and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete. Located in the desirable Colony Park, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including pool, fitness center and clubhouse. Conveniently situated near Central Valley High School, shopping, dining, highway 99, parks, public transportation everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watc

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Covered porch
• Premium amenities

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• COVERED PORCH
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• PREMIUM AMENITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $158,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $103,447.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $769 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $715 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,780 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.85%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,447
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: 52.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3939 Central Ave #118	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,244 (+5%)	15mo	$160,000	$129	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $32,233
• Equity at exit: $15,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $91,237
• Equity at exit: $8,944

Cash invested: $28,965 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$542
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$129 /mo · $1,552/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $905

Max offer price $103,447

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,862
• Closing costs: $3,103
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Don Pedro Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,695	$2.08	3d	1	0.86mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 103 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	21d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 96 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	43d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 92 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	43d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 34 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	14d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 18 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	14d	1	0.87mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 13 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	21d	1	0.87mi
2714 Pyramid Ave Unit 2714 Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,895	$1.88	23d	1	0.91mi
3850 Lexar Dr Ceres, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,899	$1.90	12d	1	0.99mi
2250 5th St Unit 11 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	23d	1	1.12mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $158,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    price $159,900 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542893A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Come see your new home today!! Welcome to Colony Park, and all aged park active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.80 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Ceres, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry and pantry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities, and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a covered porch and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete. Located in the desirable Colony Park, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including pool, fitness center and clubhouse. Conveniently situated near Central Valley High School, shopping, dining, highway 99, parks, public transportation everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watc

19. 2026-04-14
    price $162,000 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542893A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Come see your new home today!! Welcome to Colony Park, and all aged park active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.80 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Ceres, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry and pantry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities, and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a covered porch and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete. Located in the desirable Colony Park, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including pool, fitness center and clubhouse. Conveniently situated near Central Valley High School, shopping, dining, highway 99, parks, public transportation everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watc

20. 2026-03-11
    listed $154,900 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542893A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Come see your new home today!! Welcome to Colony Park, and all aged park active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a stunning, brand new, beautiful 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1144.80 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Ceres, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen will be beautifully designed with stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry and pantry, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom will serve as a relaxing retreat, complete with dual vanities, and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms will provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Outside, the home will include a covered porch and low-maintenance landscaping, perfect for enjoying your outdoor space once construction is complete. Located in the desirable Colony Park, residents enjoy access to a variety of premium amenities, including pool, fitness center and clubhouse. Conveniently situated near Central Valley High School, shopping, dining, highway 99, parks, public transportation everything you need will be just minutes away. Now is the perfect time to secure your brand-new home and watc

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,552
• − Insurance: −$517
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$3,009
• Taxable income: $8,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,934
• After-tax cash flow: $7,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and ample living space. It is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental value with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding a small garden or landscaping features — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Installing smart home features — Can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — Can increase outdoor living space and enhance curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding a small garden or landscaping features — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Installing smart home features — Can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or outdoor seating area — Can increase outdoor living space and enhance curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $159,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $162,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $154,900 Zillow