911 Douglas Dr · Erie, PA 16505

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2013 $83/sqft · 29% below area Est $87k · 26% under $435/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well maintained 2013 Champion home is ideally located near popular restaurants, shopping and Presque Isle State park, offering both convenience and tranquility. The home features a newer metal roof, newer central air and a huge two-car deep carport-perfect for covered parking and outdoor protection. The home includes the appliances, making it truly move-in ready. Additional highlights include a storage shed for extra space and a very quiet setting within a desirable senior park. Indoor cats are permitted, but no dogs. Buyer(s) must obtain park approval to purchase. This is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a prime location. This is a senior park and all buyers must have park approval.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Storage shed
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEWER CENTRAL AIR
• HUGE TWO-CAR DEEP CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $65k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.02%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,375
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -25.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $15,858
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $48,605
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $994/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2540 W 8th St Erie, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	550	$1,711	$3.11	43d	1	0.10mi
3063 W 11th St Apt 30 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	650	$925	$1.42	43d	1	0.78mi
3257 Lake Front Dr Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	880	$2,000	$2.27	43d	1	1.22mi
509 Beachgrove Dr Apt 4 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	43d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $65,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $65,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-04-25
   price $65,000 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   This well maintained 2013 Champion home is ideally located near popular restaurants, shopping and Presque Isle State park, offering both convenience and tranquility. The home features a newer metal roof, newer central air and a huge two-car deep carport-perfect for covered parking and outdoor protection. The home includes the appliances, making it truly move-in ready. Additional highlights include a storage shed for extra space and a very quiet setting within a desirable senior park. Indoor cats are permitted, but no dogs. Buyer(s) must obtain park approval to purchase. This is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a prime location. This is a senior park and all buyers must have park approval.

8. 2026-04-13
   listed $72,000 Active 737-char remark

   Show marketing remark (737 chars)

   This well maintained 2013 Champion home is ideally located near popular restaurants, shopping and Presque Isle State park, offering both convenience and tranquility. The home features a newer metal roof, newer central air and a huge two-car deep carport-perfect for covered parking and outdoor protection. The home includes the appliances, making it truly move-in ready. Additional highlights include a storage shed for extra space and a very quiet setting within a desirable senior park. Indoor cats are permitted, but no dogs. Buyer(s) must obtain park approval to purchase. This is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfortable, low maintenance living in a prime location. This is a senior park and all buyers must have park approval.

9. 2014-06-19
   soldstatus $39,900 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   * Owner Financing Available. New 2012 Champion Mobile Home In The Modern Home Park Across From Colony Plaza. Within 1 Mile Of The Peninsula, I-79 And The Bayfront Highway. Walking Distance To Restaurants And Shopping. Indoor Cats Allowed. No Dogs. Need Park Approval. This Is A Senior Park.

10. 2013-04-11
    listed $39,999 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    * Owner Financing Available. New 2012 Champion Mobile Home In The Modern Home Park Across From Colony Plaza. Within 1 Mile Of The Peninsula, I-79 And The Bayfront Highway. Walking Distance To Restaurants And Shopping. Indoor Cats Allowed. No Dogs. Need Park Approval. This Is A Senior Park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,011 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$994
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $3,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $65,000 GEBOR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $72,000 GEBOR
• 2014-06-19 Sold (MLS) $39,900 GEBOR
• 2013-04-11 Listed $39,999 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $994 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.