31 Pearl St · Brushton, NY 12916

$124,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,567 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1904 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Auction! Property not to be sold before auction on Sat. , July 17 @ 10 AM. Open House: Sat. , 7/3 & 7/10, 10-12 Noon. List price reflects assesment. Bidding starts @ $1! Over $50,000 spent on remodeling!

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Fresh interior paint
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• PARTIAL WRAPAROUND PORCH
• WOOD FLOORING
• VINYL THERMAL WINDOWS
• NEW BATHROOM MOLDINGS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

🏗️ New construction. The $124,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $188,040.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#928 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Brushton-Moira Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #503 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $125k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,749 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,040
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Grove St St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (+1%)	5mo	$190,000	$120	81
11 Grove St St	0.04mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,422 (-9%)	19mo	$132,000	$93	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $81,594
• Equity at exit: $169,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $256,689
• Equity at exit: $365,320

Cash invested: $52,651 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12916

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,725/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $130,262

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,010
• Closing costs: $5,641
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-28
   listed $124,999 Active
3. 2025-08-25
   price $119,999
4. 2010-08-25
   soldstatus $44,000 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Auction! Property not to be sold before auction on Sat. , July 17 @ 10 AM. Open House: Sat. , 7/3 & 7/10, 10-12 Noon. List price reflects assesment. Bidding starts @ $1! Over $50,000 spent on remodeling!

5. 2010-08-25
   soldstatus $44,000

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Auction! Property not to be sold before auction on Sat. , July 17 @ 10 AM. Open House: Sat. , 7/3 & 7/10, 10-12 Noon. List price reflects assesment. Bidding starts @ $1! Over $50,000 spent on remodeling!

6. 2010-06-21
   listed $49,612 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Auction! Property not to be sold before auction on Sat. , July 17 @ 10 AM. Open House: Sat. , 7/3 & 7/10, 10-12 Noon. List price reflects assesment. Bidding starts @ $1! Over $50,000 spent on remodeling!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,725 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,725 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,533
• − Property taxes: −$2,725
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$5,470
• Taxable loss: −$7,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brushton-Moira Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605820
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $40,096
• Composite: 35.18/100
• National rank: #5000
• State rank: #503 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brushton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #928
• US rank: #18086

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brushton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,250

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 8% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.08%
• Current HPI: 322.8975
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+152.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $124,999 ACVMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $119,999 ACVMLS
• 2010-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-25 Sold (MLS) $44,000 CNYIS
• 2010-06-21 Listed $49,612 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,725 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.