139 Ainger Cir · Sacramento, CA 95835

$600,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,382 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2001 4,731 sqft lot $252/sqft · 11% below area Est $677k · 11% under $91/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Natomas Park! This 5 bedroom home features 2 bedrooms and a full bathroom downstairs- a very flexible floorplan for multigenerational living. Soaring ceilings, abundant natural light and crown molding give the home an airy, elevated feel. The open kitchen layout is perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is a peaceful space with a spa-like ensuite and an exceptionally large walk-in closet. Right out your front door, you are just steps from the greenbelt, with miles of interconnected walking and biking trails. Half a mile away, The Club at Natomas Park offers multiple pools, spas, a full fitness center, playground, lounge and a kid zone. Shopping, dining, and easy fr

Key facts

• Full fitness center
• Spa-like ensuite
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• SPA-LIKE ENSUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• MULTIPLE POOLS
• FULL FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (49.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (43.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 402 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($564k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,855 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.04%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $677,288
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: -11.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1959 Delafield Way	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,333 (-2%)	0mo	$717,000	$307	79
2136 Blackridge Ave	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,624 (+10%)	4mo	$675,000	$257	69
2154 New Hampshire Way	0.30mi	5/3.0	2,137 (-10%)	0mo	$630,000	$295	68
1789 S Itasca Ave	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,401 (+1%)	4mo	$700,000	$292	59
2136 Catherwood Way	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,362 (-1%)	2mo	$620,000	$262	58
5324 Dasco Way	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,347 (-2%)	5mo	$615,000	$262	58
5343 Dasco Way	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,325 (-2%)	4mo	$605,000	$260	55
100 Aviator Cir	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,632 (+10%)	2mo	$645,000	$245	50
31 Arches Cir	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,632 (+10%)	4mo	$630,000	$239	50
5333 Buckwood Way	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,149 (-10%)	3mo	$629,990	$293	48
1800 Clayton Way	0.63mi	5/2.5	2,069 (-13%)	2mo	$545,000	$263	45
2553 Cantara Ct	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,672 (+12%)	4mo	$629,000	$235	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $182,088
• Equity at exit: $505,210

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $603,040
• Equity at exit: $1,053,988

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$722 /mo · $8,665/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$91
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $-1,671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,487

Max offer price $304,855

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5317 Buckwood Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2030	$3,050	$1.50	2d	1	0.51mi
2157 Promise Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2493	$2,995	$1.20	2d	1	0.61mi
142 Mike Gartrell Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2231	$2,975	$1.33	2d	1	0.74mi
4519 White Sage St Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2365	$3,050	$1.29	11d	1	0.88mi
5564 Celebration St Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2252	$3,195	$1.42	11d	1	0.93mi
170 Battlecreek Cir Sacramento, CA	5.0	3.0	2500	$3,095	$1.24	2d	1	1.00mi
1700 Charm Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,595	$1.15	2d	1	1.04mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	3d	1	1.14mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	3d	1	1.39mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,950	$1.60	2d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $91 · $1,092/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $600,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $600,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $600,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $600,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $600,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $600,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $600,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2022-09-13
    soldstatus $632,000
11. 2015-06-22
    soldstatus $410,000
12. 2000-07-06
    soldstatus $2,204,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,665 · $722/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,665 · $722/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$8,665
• − Insurance: −$4,502
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,237
• − Management: −$3,237
• − HOA: −$1,092
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$31,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-71.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2022-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $632,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $410,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $2,204,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,665 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.