892 Stage Coach Trl · Walnut Hill, TN 37620

$118,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1996 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PROPERTY SOLD AS IS NO REPAIRS. Great fixer upper sitting on 1.02 acres. The home is already gutted and ready for a brand new look. 3 bedroom 2 bath with 1404 square feet of space. 24x30 Detached 2 car garage.

Key facts

• 1.02 acres
• Detached garage
• 1.02 acre lot

Tags

• 1.02 ACRES
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house; One level; Residential single-family property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Sloped topography

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating available (see remarks)
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Property listed as fixer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#161 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Holston Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #319 of 952 statewide, top 37%, 635 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan Central Middle School (590 students, 0% FRL); West Ridge High School (1,683 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sullivan County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $118k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,230 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.34%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $18,275
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $63,973
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37620

• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $621/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $911

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $621	+0% $588	+5% $554	+10% $521
Rent	-10% $457	-5% $522	+0% $588	+5% $653	+10% $718
Rate	-1.0pp $647	-0.5pp $618	base $588	+0.5pp $557	+1.0pp $526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $118,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $118,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $118,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $118,000 Pending 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $118,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $118,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 209-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $118,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $621 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $838 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$621
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $5,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,303
• After-tax cash flow: $5,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County
• NCES district ID: 4703990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,263
• Composite: 17.66/100
• National rank: #9030
• State rank: #109 of 139 in TN

Livability — Walnut Hill

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #14004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walnut Hill, TN
• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,494
• Household income: $56,128
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.12%
• Current HPI: 263.38
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+195.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $118,000 TVRMLS
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1981-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $621 · +39.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.