5411 Rio Dr · Baytown, TX 77521

$254,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,717 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2008 5,641 sqft lot $94/sqft · 8% below area Est $278k · 8% under $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Home, located in the quiet Highlands Ranch subdivision of Baytown, is a spacious and well-designed two-story traditional residence that offers a generous layout ideal for both daily living and hosting guests, seamlessly balancing comfort with modern functionality. The two-story foyer creates an immediate sense of openness and light. The large family room serves as the heart of the home and the open-concept kitchen makes it a functional space for any home chef. The second floor primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private en-suite bathroom. A unique highlight of this property is the main level additional bonus room, versatile enough to serve as a media room, home office, or game room. The fully fenced backyard features two storage sheds and an above ground pool. E F Green Junior School is within walking distance and it's a short drive to Goose Creek Memorial High School. Shopping and recreation are conveniently close. Come See, Come Buy!

Key facts

• 5,641 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,767 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,052
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5358 Pompano Loop	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,795 (+3%)	2mo	$411,990	$147	73
5422 Rio Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,349 (-14%)	3mo	$255,000	$109	73
5423 Kingfish Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,731 (+0%)	2mo	$395,990	$145	73
5506 Sailfish Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,548 (-6%)	1mo	$397,990	$156	71
5407 Kingfish Dr	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,666 (-2%)	2mo	$397,990	$149	69
9222 Southern Stingray Dr	0.49mi	4/3.5	2,666 (-2%)	3mo	$402,990	$151	68
5411 Kingfish Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,795 (+3%)	2mo	$408,990	$146	68
8814 Ruddy Duck Ct	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,516 (-7%)	2mo	$305,000	$121	60
5415 Kingfish Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,517 (-7%)	2mo	$382,990	$152	56
5515 Kingfish Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (-12%)	2mo	$382,990	$161	50
8014 Safflower Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,375 (-13%)	2mo	$250,000	$105	48
9022 Bay Lodge Ln	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,337 (-14%)	0mo	$304,760	$130	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-55,877
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-76,415
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$570 /mo · $6,837/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,582

Max offer price $223,767

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5426 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,200	$0.98	43d	1	0.63mi
4606 Wild Flora Way Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,366	$1.04	12d	1	0.65mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	5d	1	0.67mi
6102 Bayou Birch Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2709	$2,750	$1.02	24d	1	0.75mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	17d	1	0.75mi
4510 Red Yucca Dr Baytown, TX	5.0	3.0	2779	$2,650	$0.95	1d	1	0.75mi
8026 Rosemary Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2390	$2,150	$0.90	43d	1	0.81mi
9502 Brookside Point Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2119	$2,800	$1.32	43d	1	1.09mi
4306 Apple Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	3.5	2713	$2,446	$0.90	5d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $254,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-03-26
    listed $264,900 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    This Home, located in the quiet Highlands Ranch subdivision of Baytown, is a spacious and well-designed two-story traditional residence that offers a generous layout ideal for both daily living and hosting guests, seamlessly balancing comfort with modern functionality. The two-story foyer creates an immediate sense of openness and light. The large family room serves as the heart of the home and the open-concept kitchen makes it a functional space for any home chef. The second floor primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private en-suite bathroom. A unique highlight of this property is the main level additional bonus room, versatile enough to serve as a media room, home office, or game room. The fully fenced backyard features two storage sheds and an above ground pool. E F Green Junior School is within walking distance and it's a short drive to Goose Creek Memorial High School. Shopping and recreation are conveniently close. Come See, Come Buy!

14. 2018-10-04
    soldstatus
15. 2018-10-03
    soldstatus Sold 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Beautiful Chesmar Homes Dempsey Plan. 4/2.5/2. 2-story foyer, Large family room overlooks covered patio. Open kitchen w/ breakfast area, formal dining, utility room up. Master up & bathroom w/ large walk-in closet. 42-in. Cabinets, solid surface Gibraltar c-tops, plush friese carpet. Energy Star Certified Diamond Green Environments for Living Home! Ready Now!! Home has been well loved. Additional bonus room added that can be used as a man cave, game room or TV room. Two Sheds stay. One is fully decked with electricity.

16. 2018-09-08
    status Pending 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Beautiful Chesmar Homes Dempsey Plan. 4/2.5/2. 2-story foyer, Large family room overlooks covered patio. Open kitchen w/ breakfast area, formal dining, utility room up. Master up & bathroom w/ large walk-in closet. 42-in. Cabinets, solid surface Gibraltar c-tops, plush friese carpet. Energy Star Certified Diamond Green Environments for Living Home! Ready Now!! Home has been well loved. Additional bonus room added that can be used as a man cave, game room or TV room. Two Sheds stay. One is fully decked with electricity.

17. 2018-09-03
    status Option Pending 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Beautiful Chesmar Homes Dempsey Plan. 4/2.5/2. 2-story foyer, Large family room overlooks covered patio. Open kitchen w/ breakfast area, formal dining, utility room up. Master up & bathroom w/ large walk-in closet. 42-in. Cabinets, solid surface Gibraltar c-tops, plush friese carpet. Energy Star Certified Diamond Green Environments for Living Home! Ready Now!! Home has been well loved. Additional bonus room added that can be used as a man cave, game room or TV room. Two Sheds stay. One is fully decked with electricity.

18. 2018-08-17
    listed $205,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Beautiful Chesmar Homes Dempsey Plan. 4/2.5/2. 2-story foyer, Large family room overlooks covered patio. Open kitchen w/ breakfast area, formal dining, utility room up. Master up & bathroom w/ large walk-in closet. 42-in. Cabinets, solid surface Gibraltar c-tops, plush friese carpet. Energy Star Certified Diamond Green Environments for Living Home! Ready Now!! Home has been well loved. Additional bonus room added that can be used as a man cave, game room or TV room. Two Sheds stay. One is fully decked with electricity.

19. 2009-04-30
    soldstatus
20. 2009-04-27
    historical
21. 2009-04-07
    listed $169,040

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,837 · $570/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,837 · $570/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$6,837
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$6,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+56.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2018-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-09-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-09-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-17 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2009-04-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-07 Listed $169,040 HARMLS

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,837 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.