Plan 2245 Plan · Conroe, TX 77304

$245,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,245 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Kitchen breakfast bar * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Upstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen tile backsplash * Den * Loft * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Parks * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• UPSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• LOW-E WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $245,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,044.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,737 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,044
• List price: $245,995
• Delta: -15.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3520 Sage Green Trl	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,200 (-2%)	3mo	$334,995	$152	93
6816 Hart Oak Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (+1%)	4mo	$301,540	$133	67
1651 Shae Oak Ln	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (+1%)	5mo	$279,890	$124	61
1908 Velvet Oak Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (+1%)	7mo	$288,140	$127	58
1726 Park Oak Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,428 (+8%)	5mo	$342,900	$141	57
6650 Lahna Oak Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (-12%)	1mo	$324,790	$164	53
3520 White Oak Point Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,181 (-3%)	3mo	$265,000	$122	52
3527 Oak Lndg	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,324 (+4%)	3mo	$350,000	$151	52
6812 Hart Oak Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (-12%)	6mo	$304,640	$153	48
6800 Hart Oak Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (-12%)	7mo	$339,640	$171	48
1710 Divino Pass	0.55mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,536 (+13%)	4mo	$499,999	$197	40
1916 Velvet Oak Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (-12%)	7mo	$294,790	$148	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-82,012
• Equity at exit: $43,396

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-131,065
• Equity at exit: $25,164

Cash invested: $81,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,366/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $224,898

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-256	-5% $-357	+0% $-457	+5% $-558	+10% $-658
Rent	-10% $-613	-5% $-535	+0% $-457	+5% $-379	+10% $-302
Rate	-1.0pp $-311	-0.5pp $-383	base $-457	+0.5pp $-533	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,761
• Closing costs: $8,731
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$2,248	$2.06	0d	16	0.69mi
3514 White Oak Point Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2699	$2,120	$0.79	0d	1	0.72mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,105	$1.46	0d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,145	$1.49	12d	1	0.78mi
1520 Sunset Ridge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,600	$1.00	22d	1	1.04mi
2342 Sugar Crest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	2077	$2,061	$0.99	9d	1	1.06mi
4513 Upland Circle Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2587	$1,950	$0.75	26d	1	1.09mi
295 Cypress Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	2117	$1,871	$0.88	14d	1	1.18mi
2502 N Yorkchase Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	2591	$2,500	$0.96	20d	1	1.26mi
2400 Montgomery Park Blvd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1265	$2,784	$2.20	0d	47	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,995 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,995 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,995 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,995 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,995 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,995 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,995 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,995 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,995 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,995 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,995 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,995 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,995 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $245,995 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $253,995 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Kitchen breakfast bar * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Upstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen tile backsplash * Den * Loft * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Parks * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2026-04-22
    listed $263,995 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Kitchen breakfast bar * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Upstairs primary suite * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen tile backsplash * Den * Loft * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Parks * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,303
• − Property taxes: −$4,366
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$8,467
• Taxable loss: −$10,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Smart home integration and security upgrades would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and property value
• Both Smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and property value ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $253,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $263,995 Zillow