412 S Marion Ave · Lake City, FL 32025

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1920 0.30 ac lot Est $220k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom/1 bath home in historic downtown Lake City is a vintage charmer. The delightful sunporch on the front of the home greets guests as they enter, and it is an ideal place to sit and visit, read, or enjoy your favorite beverage at the end of a long day. Original hardwood floors in many areas of the house can come back to life with a little effort. Conveniently located on a corner lot on the coveted Marion Street, this property is a great deal for a buyer with vision. With commercial general zoning, it can be used as a home, office, or for a multitude of commercial uses. The home fronts Marion Street, and it has plenty of space in the rear for backyard entertaining, or for parking, as the property goes all of the way back to Columbia Avenue. The property next door is also for sale, so this is a unique opportunity to own over 1/2 acre and multiple buildings in this highly sought after area.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Additional room
• Inviting porches

Tags

• 1920 BUILT HOME
• HISTORIC APPEAL
• ADDITIONAL ROOM
• FLEX SPACE
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• INVITING PORCHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Zoning: RO/CG

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Electric cooktop, Refrigerator, Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($762/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Melrose Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 398 students, 84% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $200k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,313 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
294 SW Columbia Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-6%)	2mo	$225,000	$147	79
176 NW Lake Jeffery Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,605 (-1%)	9mo	$215,000	$134	58
493 SE Church Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-11%)	2mo	$187,500	$130	56
654 SE Brown St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-4%)	12mo	$174,000	$112	53
206 SE Saint Johns St	0.24mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,828 (+13%)	7mo	$190,000	$104	48
922 SE Division Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+11%)	5mo	$211,000	$118	47
773 SW Bali Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+6%)	13mo	$235,000	$136	43
288 SE Monroe St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+15%)	19mo	$256,500	$138	43
552 SW Tularosa Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-8%)	17mo	$207,400	$139	38
570 SE Sunflower Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-14%)	8mo	$264,500	$189	37
599 SW Alamo Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	20mo	$176,500	$123	35
660 SE Camp St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,388 (-14%)	18mo	$191,000	$138	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $112,905
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $329,285
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,279/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $120	+0% $64	+5% $7	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $-6	+0% $64	+5% $133	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $114	base $64	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $199,900 Active
19. 2025-04-08
    soldstatus $115,000
20. 2025-03-02
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    This 3 bedroom/1 bath home in historic downtown Lake City is a vintage charmer. The delightful sunporch on the front of the home greets guests as they enter, and it is an ideal place to sit and visit, read, or enjoy your favorite beverage at the end of a long day. Original hardwood floors in many areas of the house can come back to life with a little effort. Conveniently located on a corner lot on the coveted Marion Street, this property is a great deal for a buyer with vision. With commercial general zoning, it can be used as a home, office, or for a multitude of commercial uses. The home fronts Marion Street, and it has plenty of space in the rear for backyard entertaining, or for parking, as the property goes all of the way back to Columbia Avenue. The property next door is also for sale, so this is a unique opportunity to own over 1/2 acre and multiple buildings in this highly sought after area.

21. 2025-02-12
    status Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    This 3 bedroom/1 bath home in historic downtown Lake City is a vintage charmer. The delightful sunporch on the front of the home greets guests as they enter, and it is an ideal place to sit and visit, read, or enjoy your favorite beverage at the end of a long day. Original hardwood floors in many areas of the house can come back to life with a little effort. Conveniently located on a corner lot on the coveted Marion Street, this property is a great deal for a buyer with vision. With commercial general zoning, it can be used as a home, office, or for a multitude of commercial uses. The home fronts Marion Street, and it has plenty of space in the rear for backyard entertaining, or for parking, as the property goes all of the way back to Columbia Avenue. The property next door is also for sale, so this is a unique opportunity to own over 1/2 acre and multiple buildings in this highly sought after area.

22. 2024-12-20
    listed $130,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    This 3 bedroom/1 bath home in historic downtown Lake City is a vintage charmer. The delightful sunporch on the front of the home greets guests as they enter, and it is an ideal place to sit and visit, read, or enjoy your favorite beverage at the end of a long day. Original hardwood floors in many areas of the house can come back to life with a little effort. Conveniently located on a corner lot on the coveted Marion Street, this property is a great deal for a buyer with vision. With commercial general zoning, it can be used as a home, office, or for a multitude of commercial uses. The home fronts Marion Street, and it has plenty of space in the rear for backyard entertaining, or for parking, as the property goes all of the way back to Columbia Avenue. The property next door is also for sale, so this is a unique opportunity to own over 1/2 acre and multiple buildings in this highly sought after area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,279
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$629
• After-tax cash flow: $1,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $199,900 NFMLS
• 2025-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-02 Sold (MLS) $115,000 NFMLS
• 2025-02-12 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $130,000 NFMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,279 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.