4518 S Ascot Cir · Desoto Lakes, FL 34235

$274,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1986 2,178 sqft lot $155/sqft · 43% below area Est $478k · 43% under $992/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Park-like water and nature views set the tone for this spacious two-story townhouse in Longwood Villas, ideally located just minutes from everything that makes the University Park area so desirable—all enjoyed within a hassle-free, maintenance-free lifestyle, with the association handling exterior upkeep, landscaping, and roof care. This well-designed floor plan offers rare flexibility with two primary suites—one on the main level and one upstairs—making it a strong fit for guests, extended family, or a private home office. Inside, soaring ceilings and an open layout create a bright, comfortable living space, with large windows framing peaceful preserve and lake views. The updated kitchen features quartz countertops, quality cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances, combining style with everyday practicality. Upstairs, a generous loft provides valuable additional living space, ideal for a media room, office, or flex area. Longwood Villas offers a quiet, established setting with immediate access to University Parkway’s shopping and dining, SRQ Airport, Benderson Park, downtown Sarasota, and the Gulf beaches. A well-located property with strong fundamentals, appealing views, and a layout that continues to make sense for today’s buyers.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Generous loft
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS LOFT
• QUIET ESTABLISHED SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (40.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#189 in FL, #3,003 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Emma E. Booker Elementary School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 468 students, 93% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 42% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sarasota average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,671 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $478,136
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -42.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-68,750
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-40,629
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34235

• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,655/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$992
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,611

Max offer price $164,671

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-468	-5% $-546	+0% $-624	+5% $-702	+10% $-780
Rent	-10% $-847	-5% $-735	+0% $-624	+5% $-513	+10% $-401
Rate	-1.0pp $-486	-0.5pp $-554	base $-624	+0.5pp $-695	+1.0pp $-768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8445 Gardens Cir Sarasota, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,852	$1.90	3d	29	0.75mi
6104 Turnbury Park Dr Sarasota, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$2,044	$1.92	3d	29	0.84mi
6041 Clubside Dr Unit 6041 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$2,950	$2.14	25d	1	0.97mi
5924 Clubside Dr Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$2,500	$1.81	25d	1	1.01mi
8119 Villa Grande Ct Unit Available Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	2120	$2,600	$1.23	25d	1	1.01mi
6211 Timber Lake Dr Unit B9 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	25d	1	1.01mi
8128 Villa Grande Ct Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$3,190	$1.75	21d	1	1.01mi
6920 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$8,300	$4.06	25d	1	1.06mi
6939 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$8,300	$4.08	25d	1	1.10mi
6909 Lennox Pl University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	2032	$6,500	$3.20	18d	1	1.10mi
8204 Villa Grande Ct Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	2121	$3,200	$1.51	18d	1	1.11mi
8434 Cypress Lake Cir Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$3,500	$1.98	25d	1	1.20mi
8316 Brandeis Cir W Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,450	$1.48	5d	1	1.22mi
5025 82nd Way E Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,250	$1.70	25d	1	1.27mi
8133 Misty Oaks Blvd Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.5	2423	$4,300	$1.77	25d	1	1.27mi
7151 83rd Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1596	$2,095	$1.31	18d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $992 · $11,904/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-05-17
   price $2,499
2. 2026-05-06
   price $274,900 1284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   Park-like water and nature views set the tone for this spacious two-story townhouse in Longwood Villas, ideally located just minutes from everything that makes the University Park area so desirable—all enjoyed within a hassle-free, maintenance-free lifestyle, with the association handling exterior upkeep, landscaping, and roof care. This well-designed floor plan offers rare flexibility with two primary suites—one on the main level and one upstairs—making it a strong fit for guests, extended family, or a private home office. Inside, soaring ceilings and an open layout create a bright, comfortable living space, with large windows framing peaceful preserve and lake views. The updated kitchen features quartz countertops, quality cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances, combining style with everyday practicality. Upstairs, a generous loft provides valuable additional living space, ideal for a media room, office, or flex area. Longwood Villas offers a quiet, established setting with immediate access to University Parkway’s shopping and dining, SRQ Airport, Benderson Park, downtown Sarasota, and the Gulf beaches. A well-located property with strong fundamentals, appealing views, and a layout that continues to make sense for today’s buyers.

3. 2026-03-18
   listed $289,000 Active 1284-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1284 chars)

   Park-like water and nature views set the tone for this spacious two-story townhouse in Longwood Villas, ideally located just minutes from everything that makes the University Park area so desirable—all enjoyed within a hassle-free, maintenance-free lifestyle, with the association handling exterior upkeep, landscaping, and roof care. This well-designed floor plan offers rare flexibility with two primary suites—one on the main level and one upstairs—making it a strong fit for guests, extended family, or a private home office. Inside, soaring ceilings and an open layout create a bright, comfortable living space, with large windows framing peaceful preserve and lake views. The updated kitchen features quartz countertops, quality cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances, combining style with everyday practicality. Upstairs, a generous loft provides valuable additional living space, ideal for a media room, office, or flex area. Longwood Villas offers a quiet, established setting with immediate access to University Parkway’s shopping and dining, SRQ Airport, Benderson Park, downtown Sarasota, and the Gulf beaches. A well-located property with strong fundamentals, appealing views, and a layout that continues to make sense for today’s buyers.

4. 2026-03-11
   price $2,575
5. 2026-02-15
   historical
6. 2026-02-13
   price $2,675
7. 2026-02-06
   price $2,700
8. 2026-01-23
   listed $2,800
9. 2025-10-19
   price $299,000
10. 2025-09-24
    price $324,000
11. 2025-09-24
    price $299,000
12. 2025-09-19
    price $324,900
13. 2025-08-30
    price $349,900
14. 2025-08-16
    listed $374,900 Active
15. 2024-05-11
    historical
16. 2024-05-09
    historical $2,100
17. 2024-05-04
    price $2,100
18. 2024-05-03
    listed $2,400
19. 2024-04-12
    price $375,000
20. 2024-04-01
    price $389,000
21. 2024-03-08
    listed $399,000 Active
22. 2019-04-30
    historical
23. 2019-03-29
    price $310,000
24. 2019-03-06
    price $315,000
25. 2019-01-25
    price $320,000
26. 2018-11-02
    price $325,000
27. 2018-09-28
    listed $350,000 Active
28. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold
29. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $190,000
30. 2018-06-14
    status Pending
31. 2018-06-05
    price $219,900
32. 2018-04-06
    price $239,900
33. 2018-03-09
    listed $249,000 Active
34. 1996-09-06
    soldstatus $106,000
35. 1995-07-31
    soldstatus $94,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,655 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,655 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$3,655
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,708
• − Management: −$2,708
• − HOA: −$11,904
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$11,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,854
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Desoto Lakes

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #3003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,146
• Household income: $78,958
• Rent vs Own: 23.5% rent · 76.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 512.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 18% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.37%
• Current HPI: 253.3964
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.68%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.4% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $2,499 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $274,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $2,575 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $2,675 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $2,700 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-01-23 Listed for Rent $2,800 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $324,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $324,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Listed $374,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-09 Rental Removed $2,100 STELLARMLS
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $2,100 STELLARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed for Rent $2,400 STELLARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-08 Listed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-29 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-06 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-25 Price Changed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-02 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-18 Sold (MLS) $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-05 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-06 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-09 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 1995-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,655 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.