3202 Harvest Ave · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$302,170

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sarah is a 1,760 square-foot floor plan with features designed to make life at home feel effortless. Brick exterior and covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePrivate primary suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, dual vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN PENINSULA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec-built home, Plan name: Sarah
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1760

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $187,197 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $125,787
• Equity at exit: $272,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $400,998
• Equity at exit: $587,050

Cash invested: $84,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,585
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,533/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,643

Max offer price $213,993

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,542
• Closing costs: $9,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	43d	1	0.24mi
2915 Tractor Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2582	$2,995	$1.16	13d	1	0.30mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	21d	1	0.70mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	43d	1	0.72mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	43d	1	0.73mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	0.73mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.76mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	13d	1	0.76mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	43d	1	0.77mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	43d	1	0.78mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	43d	1	0.78mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	13d	1	0.79mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	43d	1	0.89mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	43d	1	0.90mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	1.04mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	13d	1	1.13mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	1.22mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $302,170 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 513-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $302,170 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,926
• − Property taxes: −$4,533
• − Insurance: −$1,511
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$8,790
• Taxable loss: −$12,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B