29019 Stapleford St · Houston, TX 77386

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1978 6,499 sqft lot $165/sqft · at area comps Est $226k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect starter home in the established Fox Run community! This inviting single-story home offers a comfortable and easy-to-maintain layout ideal for first-time buyers. Enjoy a bright living area with plenty of natural light, a functional kitchen with ample cabinet space, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday comfort. Updates on this beauty include, new floors through-out, some new plumbing, new sheetrock, paint, and so much more. Step outside to a spacious backyard—great for pets, play, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways including I-45 and Grand Parkway, making commutes to The Woodlands and surrounding areas a breeze. Neighborhood amenities include parks and a community pool. Affordable, move-in ready, and full of potential—this is a great place to call home!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Bright living area
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,491 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,169
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -0.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29007 Loddington St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+1%)	7mo	$185,000	$134	89
29107 Binefield St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+2%)	2mo	$219,500	$158	89
29110 Sedgefield St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+3%)	8mo	$199,900	$143	86
29118 Loddington St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+6%)	7mo	$239,900	$167	80
29615 Brookchase Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-1%)	4mo	$229,000	$169	70
28826 Stapleford St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+11%)	6mo	$225,000	$148	68
2511 Leichester Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+8%)	6mo	$235,000	$159	66
29406 Brookchase Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+6%)	9mo	$205,000	$142	65
29115 Binefield Street St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+14%)	8mo	$215,000	$138	62
29506 Stapleford St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+10%)	6mo	$200,000	$133	59
2343 Village Leaf Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+12%)	8mo	$250,000	$164	39
29514 N Legends Bend Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+14%)	10mo	$220,000	$142	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-44,963
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-58,488
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77386

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,356/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,072

Max offer price $210,095

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-21	+0% $-84	+5% $-148	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-162	+0% $-84	+5% $-7	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-27	base $-84	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2237 Riley Fuzzel Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,435	$2.25	0d	35	0.20mi
2530 Fox River Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,900	$1.22	44d	1	0.23mi
29307 Atherstone St Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,745	$0.99	23d	1	0.33mi
2815 Fox Mountain Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,875	$1.21	5d	1	0.43mi
3640 Harmony Commons Dr Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,824	$3.35	0d	23	0.57mi
2623 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,948	$1.09	20d	1	0.64mi
3548 Rayford Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,370	$1.32	44d	1	0.67mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 2112 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,509	$1.46	0d	1	0.69mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 2658 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,949	$1.38	11d	1	0.69mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 422 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,525	$1.47	8d	1	0.69mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 424 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,525	$1.47	6d	1	0.69mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 2662 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1036	$1,549	$1.50	11d	1	0.69mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,909	$1.36	0d	1	0.69mi
2625 Harmony Park Xing Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	936	$1,640	$1.75	13d	1	0.70mi
3530 Discovery Creek Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,018	$1.92	0d	22	0.71mi
2438 Elm Crossing Trl Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	25d	1	0.76mi
29311 Legends Hill Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1768	$1,901	$1.08	0d	1	0.76mi
3559 Discovery Creek Blvd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,305	$1.20	44d	1	0.78mi
3536 Discovery Creek Blvd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,570	$1.45	44d	1	0.81mi
3543 Garrison Run Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,636	$1.17	25d	1	1.05mi
29635 Evergreen Hills Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,836	$1.28	0d	1	1.10mi
28501 Birnham Woods Dr Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	936	$1,640	$1.75	25d	1	1.29mi
29726 Sullivan Oaks Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1410	$1,725	$1.22	44d	1	1.32mi
2011 Rycroft Dr Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1700	$1,949	$1.15	20d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Perfect starter home in the established Fox Run community! This inviting single-story home offers a comfortable and easy-to-maintain layout ideal for first-time buyers. Enjoy a bright living area with plenty of natural light, a functional kitchen with ample cabinet space, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday comfort. Updates on this beauty include, new floors through-out, some new plumbing, new sheetrock, paint, and so much more. Step outside to a spacious backyard—great for pets, play, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways including I-45 and Grand Parkway, making commutes to The Woodlands and surrounding areas a breeze. Neighborhood amenities include parks and a community pool. Affordable, move-in ready, and full of potential—this is a great place to call home!

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $239,900 Active 851-char remark

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Perfect starter home in the established Fox Run community! This inviting single-story home offers a comfortable and easy-to-maintain layout ideal for first-time buyers. Enjoy a bright living area with plenty of natural light, a functional kitchen with ample cabinet space, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday comfort. Updates on this beauty include, new floors through-out, some new plumbing, new sheetrock, paint, and so much more. Step outside to a spacious backyard—great for pets, play, or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major highways including I-45 and Grand Parkway, making commutes to The Woodlands and surrounding areas a breeze. Neighborhood amenities include parks and a community pool. Affordable, move-in ready, and full of potential—this is a great place to call home!

17. 2026-02-17
    price $240,000
18. 2025-12-14
    listed $245,500 Active
19. 2003-05-28
    soldstatus
20. 2001-10-15
    historical
21. 2001-07-13
    listed $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,356 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,356 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,356
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,980
• Household income: $132,469
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1115.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.74%
• Current HPI: 226.3729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+174.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listed $245,500 HARMLS
• 2003-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-07-13 Listed $87,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,356 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.