125 Wood Rd · Centereach, NY 11720

$449,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1935 0.25 ac lot $374/sqft · 29% below area Est $630k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 125 Wood Rd. in Centereach—a charming three-bedroom, one-bath ranch offering a fantastic opportunity to make it your own. This home features high ceilings that create an open, airy feel throughout, along with a functional layout perfect for everyday living. A standout feature is the rear enclosed sunroom—ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or creating a bright bonus space year-round. With solid bones and tons of potential, this property is perfect for buyers looking to customize and add value Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this is a great opportunity to own in a desirable area. Don’t miss your chance to bring your vision to life!

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Desirable area
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• REAR ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• DESIRABLE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Living area reported from public records (1,200 total building area)
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Attic (see remarks); 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-405 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oxhead Road School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 371 students, 38% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $296k; list at $449k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $377,513 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $629,962
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -28.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Elliot Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-1%)	10mo	$570,000	$481	71
37 Saint Nicholas Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+6%)	1mo	$580,000	$457	62
117 Pond Path	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+14%)	8mo	$680,000	$496	47
14 Renown St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-12%)	13mo	$585,000	$554	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-98,269
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-117,692
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$894 /mo · $10,729/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $-405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,349

Max offer price $377,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-278	+0% $-405	+5% $-532	+10% $-659
Rent	-10% $-708	-5% $-556	+0% $-405	+5% $-253	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-290	base $-405	+0.5pp $-521	+1.0pp $-639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Spruce St Centereach, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,700	$3.38	0d	1	0.11mi
9 Williams Blvd Lake Grove, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$3,385	$3.93	0d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $449,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $449,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $449,000 Active 697-char remark
16. 2005-07-21
    soldstatus $296,400
17. 1992-10-16
    soldstatus $78,000
18. 1988-10-12
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,729 · $894/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,729 · $894/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$10,729
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,683
• − Management: −$3,683
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$12,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,003
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+461.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $296,400 Public Records
• 1992-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1988-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,729 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.