1044 Hodges Mill Rd · Dobson, NC 27017

$199,940

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1999 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Land, space, and a place that actually feels like home. This move-in ready double wide manufactured home sits on 1.05 acres in Dobson and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,296 sq ft of thoughtfully laid out living space. Brand new custom cabinets give the kitchen real character, and the open floor plan keeps everything connected without feeling cramped. The primary bedroom has its own private bath with a spa tub and walk-in closet, a quiet corner that is yours alone. Step outside to a 16x10 covered front porch and breathe. Roof replaced in 2017, heat pump in 2014. Land included. This is the kind of place you settle into. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Custom cabinets
• Private bath

Tags

• 1.05 ACRES
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BATH
• SPA TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($889/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#283 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Surry County Schools (rural): math 52% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #60 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 243 units permitted in Surry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Surry County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $200k implies a 1532% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $157,826 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $12,929
• Equity at exit: $73,125

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $60,201
• Equity at exit: $101,059

Cash invested: $55,983 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27017

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $491/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $199,940

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,985
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $199,940 Active
3. 2003-10-24
   soldstatus $12,250
4. 1999-08-01
   soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $491 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,148/yr (+$96/mo · 233.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$491
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$5,816
• Taxable loss: −$2,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$624
• After-tax cash flow: $1,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Surry County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704410
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,488
• Composite: 43.26/100
• National rank: #3054
• State rank: #60 of 178 in NC

Livability — Dobson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #12130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Surry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,473 people
• By 2030: 66,964 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 60,967 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 54,102 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 38,806 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 24,711 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Surry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 23.0% · R 76.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+51.4 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.46%
• Current HPI: 238.2911
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+2004.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $199,940 Triad MLS
• 2003-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $12,250 Public Records
• 1999-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $491 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.