23-33 31st Rd Unit 4D · New York, NY 11106

$640,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 541 sqft · Condo public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2016 $378/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This is also one of the LAST condo buildings to benefit from the 15-year 421a Tax Abatement, making it even more unique and special! Life at The Lincoln offers it all: a prime location, luxury finishes, private parking and excellent amenities! Located on a peaceful double-wide tree-lined street in Astoria's hottest, trendiest area, just 3 blocks from the N/W trains to Manhattan, minutes from great restaurants, abundant shopping, nightlife, revitalized parks and museums. This boutique 16-unit building blends contemporary style with classic charm, respecting the rich history of Astoria. Step inside to find gleaming white oak floors throughout, an open-concept kitchen with stainless steel a

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Excellent amenities
• In unit washer dryer

Tags

• 15 YEAR 421A TAX ABATEMENT
• PRIVATE PARKING
• EXCELLENT AMENITIES
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IN UNIT WASHER DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $378; Pets allowed in building

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Home design: Condominium in a 5-story building (The Lincoln)
• Construction: Zoning: R6B
• Exterior features: Balcony; Roof deck; Private outdoor space over 60 sqft; East, North and West exposures; Entry on level 4

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total of 3 rooms (configuration not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Building has bike storage; Private outdoor space over 60 sqft; Balcony; Building roof deck; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Washer/dryer allowed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-923 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $507k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $491k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $491k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,909/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 3679% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($602k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $490,933 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.06% appreciation · 7.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $9,575
• Equity at exit: $254,661

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $196,753
• Equity at exit: $368,434

Cash invested: $179,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11106

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$800 /mo · $9,600/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$378
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,031
• Net cashflow: $-923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,077

Max offer price $506,509

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-480	-5% $-701	+0% $-923	+5% $-1,144	+10% $-1,365
Rent	-10% $-1,310	-5% $-1,116	+0% $-923	+5% $-729	+10% $-535
Rate	-1.0pp $-600	-0.5pp $-760	base $-923	+0.5pp $-1,088	+1.0pp $-1,257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $160,000
• Closing costs: $19,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1420 27th Ave Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$3,237	$3.65	5d	9	0.47mi
3705 30th St Long Island City, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$4,840	$6.91	12d	3	0.79mi
888 Main St New York, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	908	$4,928	$5.43	1d	8	0.86mi
34-35 44th St Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	613	$3,576	$5.83	0d	23	0.95mi
515 E 86th St Unit 1760 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	485	$5,360	$11.05	1d	1	1.18mi
515 E 86th St Unit 589 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$6,070	$8.73	21d	1	1.18mi
501 1/2 E 83rd St #1998 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	525	$4,710	$8.97	26d	2	1.18mi
501 E 87th St #2094 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	618	$7,050	$11.41	1d	2	1.21mi
1567 York Ave Unit 1021866P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	742	$5,910	$7.96	23d	1	1.23mi
420 E 80th St #198 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	623	$4,760	$7.64	20d	1	1.28mi
515 E 72nd St Unit 17D New York, NY	1.0	1.0	687	$5,500	$8.01	26d	1	1.30mi
354 E 91st St #648 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	692	$5,520	$7.97	1d	2	1.41mi
347 E 78th St Unit 1460467P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	645	$7,606	$11.79	26d	1	1.42mi
347 E 78th St Unit 1530420P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	645	$6,270	$9.72	23d	1	1.42mi
1373 1st Ave Unit 1952 New York, NY	2.0	2.0	650	$7,260	$11.17	26d	1	1.45mi
315 E 86th St Unit 1327 New York, NY	1.0	2.0	726	$6,460	$8.90	26d	1	1.45mi
315 E 78th St Unit 1021885P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	516	$6,242	$12.10	1d	1	1.46mi
315 E 78th St Unit 1021994P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	441	$5,037	$11.42	22d	1	1.46mi
315 E 78th St Unit 1021847P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	516	$4,880	$9.46	21d	1	1.46mi
315 E 78th St Unit 1021894P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	548	$5,643	$10.30	23d	1	1.46mi
345 E 94th St #1470 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$5,645	$7.95	5d	3	1.47mi
301 E 79th St Unit 28P New York, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$5,500	$7.86	26d	1	1.47mi
308 E 78th St #2024 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	550	$4,610	$8.38	26d	2	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $378 · $4,536/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $640,000
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $665,000 Active
3. 2025-04-22
   historical $3,200
4. 2025-04-08
   price $665,000
5. 2025-04-04
   listed $3,200
6. 2018-07-03
   soldstatus $659,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,850
• − Property taxes: −$9,600
• − Insurance: −$3,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,713
• − Management: −$4,713
• − HOA: −$4,536
• − Depreciation: −$18,618
• Taxable loss: −$22,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,356
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,930
• Household income: $84,867
• Rent vs Own: 83.4% rent · 16.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3679.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Current HPI: 348.3009
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $640,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2026-03-17 Listed $665,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2025-04-22 Rental Removed $3,200 REBNY
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $665,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2025-04-04 Listed for Rent $3,200 REBNY
• 2018-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $659,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $289 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.