955 Seawolf Dr · Badger, AK 99705

$290,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition 1.17 ac lot Est $470k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming cabin is ready for you to call home. Located on the backside of Fort Wainwright this home is convenient while being secluded enough for those who seek the wilderness. Whether you work nearby or like to explore the trails outdoors, this property is sure to delight. The woodstove will keep you warm and toasty in this open concept living space. Upstairs boasts real hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms, and a Juliet deck. Outside you will find a massive fenced-in yard, a chicken coop, and a shed. Don't wait till you miss out to view this home today.

Key facts

• Radiant floor heat
• Round-profile logs
• Wood stove

Tags

• MILLED LOG AND FRAME
• ROUND-PROFILE LOGS
• RADIANT FLOOR HEAT
• WOOD STOVE
• WALKOUT BALCONY
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Built in 2001; Located on Fort Wainwright
• Construction: Built in 2001
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Refrigerator included; Water softener; Arctic entry; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($180/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ladd Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #70 of 156 statewide, top 46%, 437 students, 37% FRL); Tanana Middle School (math 23% / reading 44%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 545 students, 40% FRL); Lathrop High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 61 statewide, top 42%, 886 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,613 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $469,920
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
867 Stol Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (-1%)	10mo	$465,000	$264	49
701 Maude Boyle Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,662 (-7%)	11mo	$499,900	$301	38
1081 Annapolis St	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,034 (+14%)	14mo	$279,900	$138	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-40,355
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-9,592
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $115	+0% $15	+5% $-85	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-89	+0% $15	+5% $119	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $89	base $15	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $290,000 Active 948-char remark
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $290,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$2,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,521
• − Management: −$2,521
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$4,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $1,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and replacing the gutters to enhance curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+45.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $290,000 AKMLS
• 2022-05-06 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2022-02-16 Listed $240,000 GFBR
• 2019-02-08 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2018-12-05 Listed $199,900 GFBR