4737 Manchester Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1949 6,969 sqft lot Est $203k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! Check out this cute home in Lake Shore! This adorable home features three-bedrooms, one bathroom, a carport, a shed and greenhouse in the backyard! The entire house offers carpet in living areas and lots of windows for natural lighting. The living room is very spacious and open to the dining room. The kitchen has been updated with new cabinetry, countertops, and includes side-by-side refrigerator, microwave range and electric stove. There is a large utility room for extra storage and includes the washer and dryer. Currently rented for $1250 a month with a lease expiration date of 2/19/2024. The tenant would love to renew!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• New septic system
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• BRAND NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential use
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Faces south

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Central heating and central air; Wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($278/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayview Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 330 students, 74% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Riverside High School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,567 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,306 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4649 Cambridge Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,118 (-2%)	0mo	$235,000	$210	87
4615 Sunderland Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,222 (+8%)	1mo	$219,000	$179	76
4567 Palmer Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,114 (-2%)	1mo	$159,000	$143	73
4702 Cedarwood Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,126 (-1%)	6mo	$259,000	$230	71
4853 Riverdale Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	967 (-15%)	0mo	$117,500	$122	66
2211 Bayview Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+12%)	1mo	$125,000	$99	66
5321 Fremont St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,166 (+3%)	1mo	$231,000	$198	64
5044 Sunderland Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	996 (-12%)	2mo	$165,000	$166	64
4819 Irvington Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+1%)	1mo	$197,500	$173	63
4609 Cambridge Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,270 (+12%)	1mo	$130,000	$102	62
4756 Shirley Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+8%)	2mo	$229,900	$187	54
4417 San Juan Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,288 (+13%)	3mo	$320,000	$248	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-29,954
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,033
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,111/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $76	+0% $23	+5% $-29	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-43	+0% $23	+5% $90	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $70	base $23	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4614 Birkenhead Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	16d	1	0.16mi
3434 Blanding Blvd #201 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,800	$1.44	19d	1	0.51mi
3434 Blanding Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1101	$1,800	$1.63	4d	2	0.52mi
4610 Cedarwood Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1381	$1,950	$1.41	19d	1	0.52mi
5215 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	9d	1	0.65mi
4776 Cardinal Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	959	$1,550	$1.62	25d	1	0.74mi
5140 Janice Cir S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,335	$1.10	23d	1	0.74mi
4301 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,606	$1.54	4d	39	0.82mi
5139 Camille Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,625	$1.48	3d	1	0.83mi
6026 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	1380	$700	$0.51	25d	1	0.87mi
4375 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1125	$1,536	$1.37	4d	22	0.88mi
6066 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1097	$1,800	$1.64	25d	1	0.93mi
1626 Stimson St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,641	$1.20	23d	1	0.94mi
6119 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1302	$1,395	$1.07	25d	1	0.95mi
4844 Merrimac Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,325	$1.62	25d	1	0.98mi
4343 Ortega Farms Cir Unit A Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,950	$2.44	25d	1	0.98mi
4455 Confederate Point Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1045	$1,599	$1.53	3d	19	0.99mi
5615 San Juan Ave #208 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	25d	1	1.02mi
2039 Niblick Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,275	$1.51	4d	10	1.03mi
4608 Wheeler Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1025	$2,000	$1.95	25d	1	1.03mi
4523 Merrimac Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,544	$1.08	4d	1	1.04mi
5821 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,330	$1.26	5d	7	1.13mi
4020 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,845	$1.46	19d	1	1.16mi
3607 Colebrooke Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,590	$1.17	4d	1	1.16mi
4102 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,650	$1.12	6d	1	1.18mi
1480 Stimson St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,445	$1.15	15d	1	1.20mi
1554 Geraldine Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,850	$2.09	9d	1	1.27mi
1650 Parrish Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1387	$2,100	$1.51	25d	1	1.28mi
1540 Lake Shore Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,495	$1.27	9d	1	1.33mi
3668 Jammes Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,540	$1.26	6d	1	1.34mi
6236 Autlan Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,555	$1.20	6d	1	1.36mi
3946 Saint Johns Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,486	$2.76	3d	18	1.38mi
5120 Quan Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,250	$0.86	3d	1	1.41mi
5256 Clarendon Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,100	$1.64	25d	1	1.42mi
1374 Murray Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,950	$1.46	13d	1	1.46mi
6511 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	740	$1,200	$1.62	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 429-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,111
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,815
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$676
• After-tax cash flow: $954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+43.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $185,000 realMLS
• 2023-11-08 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed $218,900 realMLS
• 2018-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-22 Sold (MLS) $130,000 realMLS
• 2018-05-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-04-26 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-04-23 Listed $129,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,111 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.