8834 Osprey Trl · San Antonio, TX 78222

$209,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot Est $216k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-613/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,410 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,775
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8834 Osprey Trl	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	1mo	$209,999	$133	99
8830 Osprey Trl	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	2mo	$214,999	$134	96
8850 Osprey Trl	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$217,999	$136	95
8879 Osprey Trl	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	3mo	$203,999	$130	93
8867 Osprey Trl	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	2mo	$213,999	$134	92
8842 Osprey Trl	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$203,999	$146	75
8822 Osprey Trl	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$197,999	$140	75
8818 Osprey Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$198,999	$142	74
8847 Osprey Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	3mo	$186,999	$133	72
8802 Osprey Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$196,999	$141	72
8871 Osprey Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	4mo	$194,999	$138	72
8875 Osprey Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	3mo	$191,999	$137	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-34,740
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,716
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78222

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $202,602

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $21	+0% $-51	+5% $-124	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-123	+0% $-51	+5% $21	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $2	base $-51	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5727 Coopers Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,400	$2.13	22d	1	0.10mi
8563 Redhawk Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,800	$1.01	15d	1	0.45mi
5107 Moni Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,585	$1.04	24d	1	1.15mi
10319 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,500	$0.98	5d	1	1.18mi
10519 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1643	$1,900	$1.16	44d	1	1.21mi
10332 Green Br San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	24d	1	1.22mi
10531 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1849	$1,700	$0.92	44d	1	1.23mi
10534 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1311	$1,700	$1.30	44d	1	1.24mi
10366 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	11d	1	1.25mi
5322 Freshwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,525	$1.00	24d	1	1.32mi
10418 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	44d	1	1.33mi
10427 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,700	$0.88	44d	1	1.35mi
10431 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	44d	1	1.36mi
10447 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,500	$1.06	44d	1	1.38mi
10454 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,425	$1.15	11d	1	1.39mi
10471 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	24d	1	1.43mi
7814 Annex St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,600	$1.10	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $209,999
3. 2026-03-28
   price $211,999
4. 2026-03-25
   price $214,999
5. 2026-03-24
   price $213,999
6. 2026-03-18
   price $214,999
7. 2026-03-15
   price $213,999
8. 2026-03-12
   price $218,999
9. 2026-03-04
   price $219,999
10. 2026-02-17
    listed $231,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,004
• After-tax cash flow: $390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,476
• Household income: $66,362
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 26% White 19% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.18%
• Current HPI: 278.8429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $209,999 LERA
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $211,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $214,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $214,999 LERA
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $218,999 LERA
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $219,999 LERA
• 2026-02-17 Listed $231,999 LERA