518 Sabino Sky Ct · Magnolia, TX 77354

$239,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,006 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2021 $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

KB HOME FORMER MODEL HOME – Welcome home to 518 Sabino Sky Court, nestled in the desirable community of Mustang Ridge and zoned to Magnolia ISD! This beautifully designed single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage, blending comfort with contemporary style. The chef-inspired kitchen showcases stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, laminate countertops, opening seamlessly into the main living area for easy entertaining. The private primary suite features dual vanities and a tub/shower combination with tile surround, creating a perfect retreat. The extended vanity in the secondary bath provides additional functionality and space. Additional highlights

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Extended vanity
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• TUB SHOWER COMBINATION
• EXTENDED VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by King Property Management; Annual association fee of $600; Community curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (KB Home, 2021); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Built in 2021
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Private yard; Subdivision location; Backs to greenbelt/park; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (18x12); Bedroom on first floor (10x11); Bedroom on first floor (10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $208,834 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $119,444
• Equity at exit: $216,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $346,562
• Equity at exit: $466,257

Cash invested: $67,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,999/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,205

Max offer price $223,736

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-24	+0% $-92	+5% $-160	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-175	+0% $-92	+5% $-10	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-31	base $-92	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,999
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,024	$1.44	0d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,995 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,995 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $239,995 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,779 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,779 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,779 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $243,779 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,999 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$3,999
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $243,779 HARMLS

Property tax history

+101.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,999 · -9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.