14827 SW 21st Ter · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Land · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot $169/sqft · 14% above area Est $264k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a sophisticated touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Large island
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $300k implies a 1213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,805 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,880
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 13.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-65,177
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-93,795
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,227

Max offer price $270,766

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14693 SW 21st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,675	$1.20	14d	1	0.15mi
2598 SW 147th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	14d	1	0.43mi
14587 SW 25th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	21d	1	0.43mi
2600 SW 146th Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1896	$2,100	$1.11	14d	1	0.44mi
2632 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	14d	1	0.53mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	14d	1	0.55mi
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	14d	1	0.56mi
2730 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,725	$1.26	21d	1	0.60mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	21d	1	0.61mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	14d	1	0.61mi
3011 SW 140th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	21d	1	0.67mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	21d	1	0.68mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	21d	1	0.78mi
14245 SW 28th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	0.84mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	21d	1	0.85mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	14d	1	0.88mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	21d	1	0.88mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	21d	1	0.90mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	14d	1	0.91mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	21d	1	0.91mi
2870 SW 143rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,850	$0.91	21d	1	0.96mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	21d	1	0.96mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	14d	1	0.98mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	14d	1	1.04mi
14232 SW 8th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,599	$1.39	21d	1	1.10mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	21d	1	1.16mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	1.19mi
14007 SW 30th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,675	$0.98	21d	1	1.21mi
3500 SW 150th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,750	$0.98	14d	1	1.22mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	14d	1	1.28mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	21d	1	1.28mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	14d	1	1.31mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	1.37mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	21d	1	1.37mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	14d	1	1.38mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	1.43mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	14d	1	1.49mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-15
   price $299,900 1345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1345 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a sophisticated touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $304,900 1345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1345 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a sophisticated touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

3. 2026-02-11
   listed $307,500 Active 1345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1345 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Exquisite custom cabinetry throughout the kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry room adds elegance and refined craftsmanship to every space. Ideally situated in a prime location, this beautifully designed residence showcases a modern aesthetic with generous living spaces throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan, this home is perfect for family gatherings and effortless entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave. Enjoy the convenience of a large island, abundant shaker-style cabinetry, and elegant quartz countertops with waterfall edges. A stylish backsplash and feature wall add a sophisticated touch to the space. Both bathrooms are thoughtfully designed with quartz countertops, and the primary bathroom features dual sinks and a glass-enclosed shower for a spa-like experience. Luxury vinyl tile flooring flows throughout the entire home, providing durability, easy maintenance, and a seamless, cohesive look. Don’t miss this opportunity to experience modern comfort and style in a convenient Ocala location. Schedule your private showing today! Note: One or more photos have been virtually staged and may be from a model home.

4. 2009-09-29
   soldstatus $22,833
5. 2005-12-23
   soldstatus $39,800
6. 2005-06-16
   soldstatus $680,000
7. 2005-02-23
   soldstatus $10,000
8. 1997-03-12
   soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,751/yr (+$146/mo · 237.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $-198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1786.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $307,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $22,833 Public Records
• 2005-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $39,800 Public Records
• 2005-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $680,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · +92.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.