501 S mistletoe #17 · San Jacinto, CA 92582

$114,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2025 $264/sqft · 78% above area ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All new landscaping around home. This brand new tiny house is a 1 Bedroom plus a Loft. Never lived in with all appliances including washer/dryer, custom flooring throughout and 2 AC/HEAT units. Don't miss this home. It is perfect.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 119 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $776 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($788 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,740 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.18%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,250
• List price: $114,000
• Delta: 92.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 S Mistletoe #18	0.01mi	1/1.0 (-1)	400 (-7%)	1mo	$99,000	$248	82
655 E Main St #32	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	432 (0%)	5mo	$19,500	$45	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $111,559
• Equity at exit: $102,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.08×
• Total profit: $289,702
• Equity at exit: $221,477

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92582

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $855	-5% $816	+0% $776	+5% $737	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $698	+0% $776	+5% $854	+10% $933
Rate	-1.0pp $834	-0.5pp $805	base $776	+0.5pp $747	+1.0pp $717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $114,000 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    All new landscaping around home. This brand new tiny house is a 1 Bedroom plus a Loft. Never lived in with all appliances including washer/dryer, custom flooring throughout and 2 AC/HEAT units. Don't miss this home. It is perfect.

16. 2026-02-19
    listed $190,000 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    All new landscaping around home. This brand new tiny house is a 1 Bedroom plus a Loft. Never lived in with all appliances including washer/dryer, custom flooring throughout and 2 AC/HEAT units. Don't miss this home. It is perfect.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $7,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,914
• After-tax cash flow: $7,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jacinto, CA
• City population: 33,778
• Population (ZIP): 22,732

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 22% White 19% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.05%
• Current HPI: 393.657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $114,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $190,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $82 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.