2373 W Roberts Rd · Kaibab Estates West, AZ 86046

$273,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2002 2.27 ac lot $228/sqft · 22% below area Est $352k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the best of country living with a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home and a thoughtfully designed outdoor space perfect for entertaining. This inviting property features a cozy wood-burning fireplace that creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, along with a newly painted porch and turf pathways that add both charm and low-maintenance appeal. Located just outside the town of Ash Fork, the home offers easy access via a county-maintained road and reliable on-grid power. The outdoor spaces truly shine, with an outdoor kitchen featuring a built-in grill, smoker, and bar seating, along with plenty of room for a patio table and outdoor furniture along with spaces to gather around the fireplace and BBQ, unwind in the unique outdoor shower, enjoy a game of horseshoes at the horseshoe pit, or take in sweeping views from the upper viewing patio. A dedicated spa pad with electrical is already in place, ready for you to install your own spa. Two additional lower patios provide even more options for relaxing or entertaining. A brand-new 20' x 20' metal two-car garage offers secure parking and ample storage. Peaceful, scenic, and well-appointed, this property captures country living at its finest. Seller has a VA Assumable Loan - call for details.

Key facts

• Upper viewing patio
• Dedicated spa pad
• Built-in grill

Tags

• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN GRILL
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• HORSESHOE PIT
• UPPER VIEWING PATIO
• DEDICATED SPA PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-766 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (48.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (48.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) (rural): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #58 of 501 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ash Fork Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 119 students, 79% FRL); Ash Fork Middle School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C+, #21 of 218 statewide, top 9%, 74 students, 77% FRL); Ash Fork High School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 100 students, 75% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 65% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 678 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $273k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $141,796 (48.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.03%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,042
• List price: $273,000
• Delta: -22.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $99,889
• Equity at exit: $245,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $332,586
• Equity at exit: $530,379

Cash invested: $76,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86046

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 678
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $162,093

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-578	-5% $-672	+0% $-766	+5% $-861	+10% $-955
Rent	-10% $-878	-5% $-822	+0% $-766	+5% $-710	+10% $-654
Rate	-1.0pp $-629	-0.5pp $-697	base $-766	+0.5pp $-837	+1.0pp $-909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,250
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $273,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $273,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $273,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $273,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $273,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $273,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $273,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $273,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $273,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $273,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $273,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,000 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-03-18
    price $273,000 1272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

    Experience the best of country living with a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home and a thoughtfully designed outdoor space perfect for entertaining. This inviting property features a cozy wood-burning fireplace that creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, along with a newly painted porch and turf pathways that add both charm and low-maintenance appeal. Located just outside the town of Ash Fork, the home offers easy access via a county-maintained road and reliable on-grid power. The outdoor spaces truly shine, with an outdoor kitchen featuring a built-in grill, smoker, and bar seating, along with plenty of room for a patio table and outdoor furniture along with spaces to gather around the fireplace and BBQ, unwind in the unique outdoor shower, enjoy a game of horseshoes at the horseshoe pit, or take in sweeping views from the upper viewing patio. A dedicated spa pad with electrical is already in place, ready for you to install your own spa. Two additional lower patios provide even more options for relaxing or entertaining. A brand-new 20' x 20' metal two-car garage offers secure parking and ample storage. Peaceful, scenic, and well-appointed, this property captures country living at its finest. Seller has a VA Assumable Loan - call for details.

19. 2026-02-06
    listed $278,000 Active 1272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

    Experience the best of country living with a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home and a thoughtfully designed outdoor space perfect for entertaining. This inviting property features a cozy wood-burning fireplace that creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, along with a newly painted porch and turf pathways that add both charm and low-maintenance appeal. Located just outside the town of Ash Fork, the home offers easy access via a county-maintained road and reliable on-grid power. The outdoor spaces truly shine, with an outdoor kitchen featuring a built-in grill, smoker, and bar seating, along with plenty of room for a patio table and outdoor furniture along with spaces to gather around the fireplace and BBQ, unwind in the unique outdoor shower, enjoy a game of horseshoes at the horseshoe pit, or take in sweeping views from the upper viewing patio. A dedicated spa pad with electrical is already in place, ready for you to install your own spa. Two additional lower patios provide even more options for relaxing or entertaining. A brand-new 20' x 20' metal two-car garage offers secure parking and ample storage. Peaceful, scenic, and well-appointed, this property captures country living at its finest. Seller has a VA Assumable Loan - call for details.

20. 2025-09-27
    status Active
21. 2025-09-27
    historical
22. 2025-09-15
    status Pending
23. 2025-05-14
    listed $278,000 Active
24. 2025-03-07
    historical
25. 2024-05-30
    price $249,000
26. 2024-03-21
    listed $275,000 Active
27. 2021-03-10
    soldstatus $166,650
28. 2015-06-09
    soldstatus $69,900
29. 2006-01-10
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$14,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471)
• NCES district ID: 0400910
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,345
• Composite: 54.75/100
• National rank: #2833
• State rank: #58 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kaibab Estates West

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kaibab Estates West, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,669

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.78%
• Current HPI: 474.3252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+203.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $273,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $278,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Listed $278,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $249,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-21 Listed $275,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $166,650 Public Records
• 2015-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2006-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $73 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.