624 Northhaven Dr · Lone Star, TX 75668

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1958 8,407 sqft lot $155/sqft · 127% above area Est $60k · 50% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming three-bedroom gem nestled in the heart of a peaceful East Texas community. This cozy residence offers 876 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space that proves good things truly do come in smaller packages. Step inside and discover a home that embraces simplicity without sacrificing comfort. The well-appointed layout features three bedrooms, including a lovely primary bedroom that serves as your personal retreat after long days. The full bathroom is conveniently positioned to serve the entire household with ease. What this home lacks in square footage, it more than makes up for in location and lifestyle. Nature lovers will appreciate the proximity to th

Key facts

• 8,407 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Has carport; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; No pool; No other structures

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#786 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Daingerfield-Lone Star ISD (town): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #679 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morris County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,500
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 49.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-5,508
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $6,610
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75668

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $698

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $89,000 Active 1571-char remark
17. 2026-04-18
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,060/yr (+$88/mo · 186.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$840
• − Management: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $1,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Daingerfield-Lone Star ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816180
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7877
• State rank: #679 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lone Star

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #14389

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lone Star, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,409

Population outlook (Morris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,628 people
• By 2030: 11,126 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 10,181 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 9,408 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 8,268 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 7,463 · -35.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Morris

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.2) · D 24.1% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -51.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.2 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.64%
• Current HPI: 77.1143
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $89,000 LAAR
• 2026-04-18 Listed $89,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.