27 Cromwell Ct · Leisure Knoll, NJ 08759

$285,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1998 8,276 sqft lot $200/sqft · 30% below area Est $405k · 30% under $233/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your imagination to this 2 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home located in a desirable active adult community. Situated on a quiet street backing up to a private grove of trees, the property offers a peaceful setting with added privacy. The home features a spacious living area, eat-in kitchen, rear patio, and a 2-car garage. Great opportunity to make it your own. Community amenities include a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, bocce ball, and various indoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and just a short drive to the beaches. Property sold as-is, Purchaser responsible for CO.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Spacious living area
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE GROVE OF TREES
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• REAR PATIO
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Leisure Knoll — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,311 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,956
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -29.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Cromwell Ct	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,428 (0%)	1mo	$282,000	$197	100
38 Mansfield Ave	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,551 (+9%)	2mo	$275,000	$177	77
63 Sandhurst St	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,426 (-0%)	1mo	$289,500	$203	74
15 Frilham Ln	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,427 (-0%)	2mo	$230,000	$161	72
13 Newbury Row	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,426 (-0%)	0mo	$300,000	$210	71
93 Mansfield Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,551 (+9%)	2mo	$440,000	$284	71
16 Harrogate Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,426 (-0%)	2mo	$300,000	$210	71
10 Saint Paul Pl	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,426 (-0%)	1mo	$292,500	$205	67
9 Oakham Row	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,551 (+9%)	2mo	$310,000	$200	60
29 Oakham	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,267 (-11%)	3mo	$270,000	$213	59
9 Romford Ln	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,616 (+13%)	1mo	$337,500	$209	57
15 Normanton Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,267 (-11%)	0mo	$330,000	$260	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-58,818
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-66,844
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$436 /mo · $5,231/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,889

Max offer price $249,311

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-121	+0% $-202	+5% $-283	+10% $-363
Rent	-10% $-410	-5% $-306	+0% $-202	+5% $-98	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-130	base $-202	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	0d	1	0.37mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	46d	1	0.71mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	1.21mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	46d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   Bring your imagination to this 2 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home located in a desirable active adult community. Situated on a quiet street backing up to a private grove of trees, the property offers a peaceful setting with added privacy. The home features a spacious living area, eat-in kitchen, rear patio, and a 2-car garage. Great opportunity to make it your own. Community amenities include a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, bocce ball, and various indoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and just a short drive to the beaches. Property sold as-is, Purchaser responsible for CO.

2. 2026-03-16
   listed $285,000 Active 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   Bring your imagination to this 2 bedroom, 2 full bathroom home located in a desirable active adult community. Situated on a quiet street backing up to a private grove of trees, the property offers a peaceful setting with added privacy. The home features a spacious living area, eat-in kitchen, rear patio, and a 2-car garage. Great opportunity to make it your own. Community amenities include a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, bocce ball, and various indoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and just a short drive to the beaches. Property sold as-is, Purchaser responsible for CO.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,231 · $436/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,164 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: +$933/yr (+$78/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,231
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,528
• − Management: −$2,528
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,720
• After-tax cash flow: $-705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Knoll

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #11285

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Knoll, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $285,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,231 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.