Hughes Plan · Geismar, LA 70734

$381,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily · 335 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 334 days

🏗️ New construction. The $381,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $438,857.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $382k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-713 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spanish Lake Primary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #50 of 646 statewide, top 9%, 540 students, 41% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #10 of 218 statewide, top 5%, 657 students, 36% FRL); Dutchtown High School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade B, #9 of 265 statewide, top 3%, 2,643 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 335 days — a 12% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $293,630 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 335 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,857
• List price: $381,500
• Delta: -13.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36244 Belle Parc Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,015 (-6%)	2mo	$381,455	$189	84
13237 Belle Reine Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (-6%)	3mo	$404,691	$200	81
13308 Belle Prairie Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,113 (-1%)	4mo	$443,000	$210	81
36208 Belle Parc Ave	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,213 (+4%)	3mo	$453,800	$205	79
36208 Belle Parc Ave	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,213 (+4%)	3mo	$453,800	$205	79
36364 Belle Journee Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-6%)	0mo	$385,000	$191	77
36310 Belle Reserve Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,039 (-4%)	2mo	$350,000	$172	76
13314 Belle Prairie Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (-6%)	1mo	$389,900	$193	70
36259 Belle Parc Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	2mo	$374,900	$204	66
36444 C Braud Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,318 (+8%)	2mo	$699,900	$302	61
36388 Belle Reserve Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	1mo	$365,000	$199	57
13088 Dutchtown Lakes Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-14%)	0mo	$325,000	$178	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-116,491
• Equity at exit: $65,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-159,746
• Equity at exit: $37,944

Cash invested: $122,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.4 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,238 ($198/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70734

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,301
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$549 /mo · $6,583/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $-713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,839

Max offer price $335,661

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-562	+0% $-713	+5% $-865	+10% $-1,016
Rent	-10% $-945	-5% $-829	+0% $-713	+5% $-597	+10% $-481
Rate	-1.0pp $-492	-0.5pp $-602	base $-713	+0.5pp $-827	+1.0pp $-943

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,714
• Closing costs: $13,166
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37313 Mindy Way Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2517	$4,050	$1.61	93d	1	1.24mi
37393 Preserve Trl Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,500	$1.28	63d	2	1.28mi
37196 Audubon Park Ave Geismar, LA	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,200	$1.13	16d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $381,500 Active 335 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $381,500 Active 334 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $381,500 Active 333 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $381,500 Active 332 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $381,500 Active 331 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $381,500 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $381,500 Active 327 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $381,500 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $381,500 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $381,500 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $381,500 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $381,500 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $381,500 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $381,500 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $381,500 Active 317 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,000 Active 314 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $379,000 Active 312 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $379,000 Active 311 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $379,000 Active 310 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $379,000 Active 309 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $379,000 Active 308 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $379,000 Active 307 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $379,000 Active 306 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $379,000 Active 305 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $379,000 Active 303 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,000 Active 302 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $379,000 Active 301 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $379,000 Active 300 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 299 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $379,000 Active 298 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $379,000 Active 297 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $379,000 Active 296 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $379,000 Active 295 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $379,000 Active 294 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $379,000 Active 293 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $379,000 Active 292 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $379,000 Active 290 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $379,000 Active 288 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $379,000 Active 287 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $379,000 Active 284 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $379,000 Active 283 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $379,000 Active 282 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $379,000 Active 281 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $379,000 Active 279 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $379,000 Active 276 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $379,000 Active 275 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,000 Active 274 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,000 Active 273 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $379,000 Active 270 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 269 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,583
• − Property taxes: −$6,583
• − Insurance: −$2,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,819
• − Management: −$2,819
• − Depreciation: −$12,767
• Taxable loss: −$16,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can enhance the interior and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spanish Lake Primary School B LA #50/646 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dutchtown Middle School B+ LA #10/218 Nat'l #1,453/14,009 High Dutchtown High School B LA #9/265 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Geismar

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension · 145,480 people
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 9,880
• Household income: $124,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own

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Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.70%
• Current HPI: 148.0987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $379,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-07 Listed $394,000 Zillow