Hughes Plan · Geismar, LA 70734

$381,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily · 381 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 381 days

🏗️ New construction. The $381,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $438,202.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $382k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spanish Lake Primary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #50 of 646 statewide, top 9%, 540 students, 41% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #10 of 218 statewide, top 5%, 657 students, 36% FRL); Dutchtown High School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade B, #9 of 265 statewide, top 3%, 2,643 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,939 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.00%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,202
• List price: $381,500
• Delta: -12.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36244 Belle Parc Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,015 (-6%)	3mo	$381,455	$189	83
36364 Belle Journee Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-6%)	2mo	$385,000	$191	75
36310 Belle Reserve Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,039 (-4%)	4mo	$350,000	$172	74
36176 Belle Parc Ave	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,045 (-4%)	1mo	$419,000	$205	72
36224 Belle Parc Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-10%)	0mo	$385,000	$201	71
13314 Belle Prairie Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (-6%)	3mo	$389,900	$193	69
36259 Belle Parc Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	4mo	$374,900	$204	65
13247 Cypress Swamp Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,335 (+9%)	0mo	$549,000	$235	64
36431 Belle Journee Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	1mo	$280,000	$153	56
36388 Belle Reserve Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	2mo	$365,000	$199	56
13088 Dutchtown Lakes Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-14%)	2mo	$325,000	$178	42
37076 Cobblestone Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (-15%)	1mo	$275,000	$151	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-136,073
• Equity at exit: $65,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-202,166
• Equity at exit: $37,888

Cash invested: $122,696 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 59 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $400,000 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70734

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,539 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,298
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$548 /mo · $6,573/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-1,022

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,833

Max offer price $290,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-719	-5% $-871	+0% $-1,022	+5% $-1,174	+10% $-1,325
Rent	-10% $-1,223	-5% $-1,123	+0% $-1,022	+5% $-922	+10% $-822
Rate	-1.0pp $-802	-0.5pp $-911	base $-1,022	+0.5pp $-1,136	+1.0pp $-1,251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,550
• Closing costs: $13,146
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36431 Belle Journee Ave Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,900	$1.58	0d	1	0.33mi
37060 John St Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,750	$1.24	6d	1	0.68mi
12467 Dutchtown Villa Dr Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,100	$1.29	6d	1	0.74mi
14155 LA-73 #12 Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.5	2000	$1,950	$0.97	6d	1	1.08mi
37313 Mindy Way Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2517	$4,050	$1.61	139d	1	1.24mi
37393 Preserve Trl Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,500	$1.28	0d	2	1.28mi
37196 Audubon Park Ave Geismar, LA	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,200	$1.13	62d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $381,500 Active 381 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $381,500 Active 380 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $381,500 Active 379 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $381,500 Active 378 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $381,500 Active 377 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $381,500 Active 376 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $381,500 Active 375 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $381,500 Active 374 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $381,500 Active 373 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $381,500 Active 372 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $381,500 Active 371 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $381,500 Active 370 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $381,500 Active 369 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $381,500 Active 363 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $381,500 Active 362 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $381,500 Active 361 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $381,500 Active 358 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $381,500 Active 357 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $381,500 Active 356 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $381,500 Active 355 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $381,500 Active 354 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $381,500 Active 353 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $381,500 Active 352 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $381,500 Active 351 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $381,500 Active 350 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $381,500 Active 349 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $381,500 Active 348 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $381,500 Active 347 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $381,500 Active 346 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $381,500 Active 345 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $381,500 Active 344 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $381,500 Active 343 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $381,500 Active 342 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $381,500 Active 341 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $381,500 Active 340 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $381,500 Active 339 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $381,500 Active 338 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $381,500 Active 337 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $381,500 Active 336 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $381,500 Active 335 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $381,500 Active 334 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $381,500 Active 333 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $381,500 Active 332 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $381,500 Active 331 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $381,500 Active 330 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $381,500 Active 327 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $381,500 Active 326 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $381,500 Active 325 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $381,500 Active 323 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $381,500 Active 321 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,546
• − Property taxes: −$6,573
• − Insurance: −$2,191
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,438
• − Management: −$2,438
• − Depreciation: −$12,748
• Taxable loss: −$20,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can enhance the interior and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spanish Lake Primary School B LA #50/646 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dutchtown Middle School B+ LA #10/218 Nat'l #1,453/14,009 High Dutchtown High School B LA #9/265 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Geismar

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension · 145,480 people
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 9,880
• Household income: $124,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own

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Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.70%
• Current HPI: 148.0987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $379,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-07 Listed $394,000 Zillow