Hughes Plan · Geismar, LA 70734

$381,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily · 427 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 426 days

🏗️ New construction. The $381,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $437,986.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $382k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spanish Lake Primary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #50 of 646 statewide, top 9%, 540 students, 41% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #10 of 218 statewide, top 5%, 657 students, 36% FRL); Dutchtown High School (math 70% / reading 68%, grade B, #9 of 265 statewide, top 3%, 2,643 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 427 days — a 12% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $254,017 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 427 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.98%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,986
• List price: $381,500
• Delta: -12.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36244 Belle Parc Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,015 (-6%)	5mo	$381,455	$189	82
36364 Belle Journee Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-6%)	3mo	$385,000	$191	74
36310 Belle Reserve Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,039 (-4%)	5mo	$350,000	$172	73
36176 Belle Parc Ave	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,045 (-4%)	3mo	$419,000	$205	71
36224 Belle Parc Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-10%)	2mo	$385,000	$201	70
13314 Belle Prairie Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (-6%)	4mo	$389,900	$193	68
36259 Belle Parc Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	5mo	$374,900	$204	64
13247 Cypress Swamp Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,335 (+9%)	2mo	$549,000	$235	63
36431 Belle Journee Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	3mo	$280,000	$153	55
36388 Belle Reserve Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	4mo	$365,000	$199	54
13088 Dutchtown Lakes Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-14%)	3mo	$325,000	$178	40
37076 Cobblestone Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (-15%)	3mo	$275,000	$151	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-135,904
• Equity at exit: $65,305

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-201,846
• Equity at exit: $37,869

Cash invested: $122,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.1 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $419,000 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 16 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70734

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,570/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-1,020

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,831

Max offer price $290,379

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-717	-5% $-869	+0% $-1,020	+5% $-1,171	+10% $-1,323
Rent	-10% $-1,221	-5% $-1,120	+0% $-1,020	+5% $-920	+10% $-819
Rate	-1.0pp $-800	-0.5pp $-909	base $-1,020	+0.5pp $-1,134	+1.0pp $-1,249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,497
• Closing costs: $13,140
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13397 Belle Prairie Dr Geismar, LA	4.0	3.0	2362	$3,000	$1.27	10d	1	0.27mi
36431 Belle Journee Ave Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1834	$2,900	$1.58	46d	1	0.33mi
37060 John St Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	10d	1	0.68mi
12467 Dutchtown Villa Dr Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,100	$1.29	51d	1	0.74mi
12461 Dutchtown Villa Dr Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	14d	1	0.75mi
12461 Dutchtown Villa Dr Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	10d	1	0.75mi
12446 Dutchtown Villa Dr Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	10d	1	0.78mi
12446 Dutchtown Villa Dr Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	14d	1	0.78mi
14155 Louisiana 73 Unit 41 Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,000	$1.28	10d	1	1.06mi
14155 LA-73 #12 Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.5	2000	$1,950	$0.97	51d	1	1.08mi
37313 Mindy Way Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2517	$4,050	$1.61	184d	1	1.24mi
37395 Whispering Hollow Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2370	$3,850	$1.62	10d	1	1.27mi
37024 Rivergate Ave Geismar, LA	3.0	2.0	1644	$1,800	$1.09	0d	1	1.27mi
37393 Preserve Trl Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,500	$1.28	0d	2	1.28mi
37206 Saint Marie Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.5	2693	$3,000	$1.11	14d	1	1.44mi
37206 Saint Marie Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.5	2693	$3,000	$1.11	10d	1	1.44mi
37196 Audubon Park Ave Geismar, LA	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,200	$1.13	107d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $381,500 Active 427 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $381,500 Active 426 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $381,500 Active 425 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $381,500 Active 424 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $381,500 Active 423 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $381,500 Active 421 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $381,500 Active 420 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $381,500 Active 419 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $381,500 Active 418 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $381,500 Active 417 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $381,500 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $381,500 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $381,500 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $381,500 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $381,500 Active 412 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $381,500 Active 411 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $381,500 Active 410 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $381,500 Active 409 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $381,500 Active 408 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $381,500 Active 407 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $381,500 Active 406 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $381,500 Active 405 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $381,500 Active 404 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $381,500 Active 403 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $381,500 Active 402 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $381,500 Active 401 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $381,500 Active 400 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $381,500 Active 399 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $381,500 Active 398 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $381,500 Active 397 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $381,500 Active 396 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $381,500 Active 395 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $381,500 Active 394 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $381,500 Active 393 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $381,500 Active 392 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $381,500 Active 391 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $381,500 Active 390 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $381,500 Active 389 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $381,500 Active 388 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $381,500 Active 387 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $381,500 Active 386 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $381,500 Active 385 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $381,500 Active 383 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $381,500 Active 382 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $381,500 Active 381 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $381,500 Active 380 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $381,500 Active 379 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $381,500 Active 378 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $381,500 Active 377 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $381,500 Active 376 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,534
• − Property taxes: −$6,570
• − Insurance: −$2,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,439
• − Management: −$2,439
• − Depreciation: −$12,741
• Taxable loss: −$20,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can enhance the interior and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 65/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spanish Lake Primary School B LA #50/646 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dutchtown Middle School B+ LA #10/218 Nat'l #1,453/14,009 High Dutchtown High School B LA #9/265 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Geismar

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension · 145,480 people
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 9,880
• Household income: $124,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own

---

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.70%
• Current HPI: 148.0987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $379,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-07 Listed $394,000 Zillow