Magnolia Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$245,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Magnolia is a beautifully crafted single-story plan with 1,510 to 1,617 square feet of efficient living space, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a 2- or 3-car garage. This thoughtfully designed Smart Series floorplan is tailored to meet your lifestyle needs!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5022 Perennial Ln, La Marque, TX 77568; Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-06-04
• Financial info: List price $245,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan: Magnolia; Plan inventory type

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,510

🏗️ New construction. The $245,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,579.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,714 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,579
• List price: $245,990
• Delta: -5.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1233 Sacred Light Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-1%)	0mo	$252,990	$170	89
1305 Blue Moon Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-1%)	1mo	$257,990	$173	89
1109 Black Rail St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+1%)	1mo	$245,000	$161	88
1106 Radiant Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+2%)	1mo	$265,990	$172	88
996 Camellia Hills Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+1%)	1mo	$239,000	$157	85
805 Apple Blossom Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-1%)	1mo	$269,990	$180	75
1074 Garnet Star Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+15%)	0mo	$295,990	$171	69
608 Burlina Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+11%)	2mo	$268,990	$160	46
648 Burlina Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+11%)	1mo	$249,990	$149	46
680 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+13%)	2mo	$313,000	$184	44
652 Burlina Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+14%)	1mo	$255,190	$149	42
644 Burlina Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+14%)	1mo	$275,990	$161	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-49,948
• Equity at exit: $39,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-47,282
• Equity at exit: $22,617

Cash invested: $73,242 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,372
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,924/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,288

Max offer price $239,733

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-61	+0% $-151	+5% $-241	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-234	+0% $-151	+5% $-68	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-84	base $-151	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,395
• Closing costs: $7,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	0d	12	1.02mi
9001 Glacier Ave Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,180	$1.11	0d	4	1.16mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	21d	1	1.23mi
7440 Highway 6 Hitchcock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,428	$1.65	0d	11	1.44mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,990 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,990 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,990 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,990 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,990 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,990 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,990 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,990 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $245,990 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,990 Active 945 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,990 Active 944 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 943 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,990 Active 942 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $245,490 272-char remark
16. 2025-08-12
    price $244,490 272-char remark
17. 2025-08-12
    price $252,490 272-char remark
18. 2025-07-02
    price $244,490 272-char remark
19. 2025-04-05
    price $253,490 272-char remark
20. 2025-03-08
    price $252,490 272-char remark
21. 2025-03-06
    price $251,740 272-char remark
22. 2025-01-25
    price $250,740 272-char remark
23. 2024-07-18
    price $248,990 272-char remark
24. 2024-05-10
    price $248,490 272-char remark
25. 2024-04-02
    price $247,990 272-char remark
26. 2024-03-07
    price $245,490 272-char remark
27. 2024-02-10
    price $243,490 272-char remark
28. 2023-11-01
    listed $240,490 Active 272-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 52% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,653
• − Property taxes: −$3,924
• − Insurance: −$1,308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$7,610
• Taxable loss: −$6,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Magnolia Plan is a well-maintained single-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition. Minor updates to the exterior, interior, and landscaping can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B