1511 N 33rd St · Birmingham, AL 35234

$76,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1930 4,791 sqft lot Est $100k · 24% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedrooms, 2 full baths, Kitchen, Dining Room, Living Room, Kitchen Nook. Hardwoods in all Bedrooms, Living Room and Dining Room. Central HVAC about 9 years old, Roof about 12 years and Water Heater about 6 years old. The house needs new windows.

Key facts

• Roof 12 years old
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1930

Tags

• HARDWOODS IN ALL ROOMS
• CENTRAL HVAC 9 YEARS OLD
• ROOF 12 YEARS OLD
• WATER HEATER 6 YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Norwood Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 249 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,720 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.19%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,974
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Norwood Cir	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$177,000	$123	75
3514 17th Ave N	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,521 (+13%)	1mo	$39,500	$26	64
3535 17th Ave N	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,525 (+13%)	2mo	$55,000	$36	62
1528 36th Pl N	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+8%)	6mo	$245,000	$169	60
3600 15th Ave N	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,493 (+10%)	8mo	$70,000	$47	60
3624 Norwood Blvd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,504 (+11%)	3mo	$80,000	$53	59
1720 34th Pl N	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,241 (-8%)	16mo	$50,000	$40	59
1712 34th Pl N	0.19mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,468 (+9%)	17mo	$108,000	$74	58
1515 36th Pl N	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-11%)	6mo	$95,000	$79	54
3020 Norwood Blvd	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,520 (+12%)	15mo	$207,000	$136	54
3631 15th Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,472 (+9%)	14mo	$83,000	$56	53
2820 Norwood Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+12%)	9mo	$245,000	$163	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $19,509
• Equity at exit: $11,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $57,940
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35234

• Home prices YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $589/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $607

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1405 33rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	952	$990	$1.04	24d	1	0.20mi
1720 34th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	3.0	1861	$2,200	$1.18	2d	1	0.20mi
1444 31st St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1014	$1,295	$1.28	24d	1	0.23mi
3509 Norwood Blvd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	943	$1,100	$1.17	3d	1	0.27mi
3001 Norwood Blvd Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,500	$1.37	3d	1	0.27mi
3601 Norwood Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,323	$0.85	3d	1	0.39mi
1515 36th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,273	$1.06	44d	1	0.43mi
2223 28th St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1836	$1,300	$0.71	44d	1	0.66mi
2807 34th St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1556	$1,100	$0.71	44d	1	0.72mi
2129 30th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,000	$0.96	24d	1	0.77mi
2108 25th St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1446	$1,300	$0.90	44d	1	0.83mi
3920 11th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,025	$0.85	2d	1	1.07mi
1576 20th St N Apt D Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$725	$0.81	44d	1	1.11mi
3373 33rd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	3d	1	1.17mi
3376 34th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.17mi
3016 33rd Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	44d	1	1.17mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	12d	1	1.17mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	24d	1	1.17mi
1017 Cahaba St Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,350	$1.30	3d	1	1.17mi
2212 20th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1141	$895	$0.78	44d	1	1.21mi
1909 18th St N Unit 1909 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	15d	1	1.24mi
1906 15th Ct N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1311	$1,000	$0.76	24d	1	1.26mi
1900 15th Ct N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1748	$1,425	$0.82	44d	1	1.27mi
1917 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	15d	1	1.31mi
600 24th St N Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$1,499	$1.36	2d	13	1.33mi
1938 18th Pl N Unit 1938 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	15d	1	1.33mi
1940 18th Pl N Unit 1940 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	15d	1	1.33mi
1954 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	44d	1	1.33mi
1994 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	15d	1	1.34mi
2004 18th Pl N Unit 2004 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	15d	1	1.34mi
2010 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	10d	1	1.34mi
2012 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	10d	1	1.34mi
1906 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	15d	1	1.35mi
1608 18th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	44d	1	1.36mi
4108 7th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	24d	1	1.47mi
1117 42nd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1026	$900	$0.88	44d	1	1.48mi
813 42nd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,285	$0.90	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-06-19
   status Pending
2. 2024-05-28
   price $76,000
3. 2024-05-09
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $589 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $589 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$589
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $5,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,213
• After-tax cash flow: $4,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 3,828

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.89%
• Current HPI: 250.4724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-19 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $76,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $90,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $589 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.