4106 Lake Cypress Cir · Houston, TX 77068

$349,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2015 5,688 sqft lot Est $357k · at est. $76/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Your Lakefront estate is here!! Sleek brick arches over the porch let you enjoy the view of the community lake right at your front doorstep! This gorgeous 4-bedroom 2.5 bath home features abundant natural light streaming through well-placed windows, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. New luxury plank flooring throughout the entire first floor. The open-concept kitchen features 42” cabinets, oversized center island that flows into the sunlit family and dining areas, walk-in pantry, and a stylish backsplash that adds the perfect touch of elegance. The spacious primary suite includes dual sinks, soaking tub, walk-in shower, and extra-large walk-in closet. 3 spacious secondary bed

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Brick arches
• Lakefront estate

Tags

• LAKEFRONT ESTATE
• BRICK ARCHES
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GAME ROOM
• TRAIL WALKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Cypress Creek Crossing HOA; HOA fee $909 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway parking
• Security: Security system (leased); Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Has a view
• Construction: Built in 2015; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Subdivision setting; Views; Waterfront on a lake / lakefront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas range; Oven; Disposal; Ice maker; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level) — 17x17; Bedroom (second level) — 13x10; Bedroom (second level) — 12x11; Bedroom (second level) — 11x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Kitchen/Family room combo; Kitchen/Dining combo; Walk-in pantry; Double vanity; Bath in primary bedroom; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric and gas); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-635 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pat Reynolds El (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 836 students, 86% FRL); Edwin M Wells Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 89% FRL); Westfield H S (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,574 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,729 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.78%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4118 Streambed Trl	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,979 (-6%)	6mo	$359,999	$121	79
4306 Lake Cypress Cir	0.18mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,250 (+3%)	6mo	$409,379	$126	77
4022 Streambed Trl	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,792 (-12%)	2mo	$325,000	$116	71
3818 Gladeridge Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	3,068 (-3%)	6mo	$335,000	$109	67
15515 San Milo Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5	3,056 (-3%)	2mo	$345,000	$113	62
15406 Falling Creek Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,950 (-7%)	3mo	$315,000	$107	58
3918 Stillview Dr	0.22mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,815 (-11%)	7mo	$369,500	$131	56
15518 San Milo Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,383 (+7%)	2mo	$329,000	$97	54
3614 Shanemoss Ct	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,852 (-10%)	2mo	$299,990	$105	52
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,760 (-13%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	49
15007 Walters Rd	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,730 (-14%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	48
3630 Glenpine Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,689 (-15%)	6mo	$296,000	$110	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-84,074
• Equity at exit: $65,800

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-112,899
• Equity at exit: $54,191

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$712 /mo · $8,540/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$76
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,504

Max offer price $237,729

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	43d	1	0.67mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	43d	1	0.87mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	21d	1	1.22mi
5415 Olympia Fields Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	4163	$3,500	$0.84	3d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $76 · $912/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $349,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,540 · $712/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,540 · $712/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$8,540
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$13,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $339,999 HARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-21 Rental Removed — HARMLS

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,540 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.