1224 Bicknell Ave · Louisville, KY 40215

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 1926 7,806 sqft lot Est $161k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors, 3 bed, 1 full bath. New roof, New HVAC, New water line, New windows, New interior paint. New light fixtures, New switches/plates. New exterior rear door. Needs kitchen/bath remodel, needs new flooring and exterior paint- the siding has been repaired and ready for paint.

Key facts

• New water line
• New hvac
• New light fixtures

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER LINE
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Kugler subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee; Rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Cape Cod-style; 2 stories; Built in 1926
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining area on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: 6 rooms total; Finished living area on main levels; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $110k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.89%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,524
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1215 W Woodlawn Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+2%)	5mo	$175,000	$156	87
4618 N Rutland Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	988 (-10%)	1mo	$165,000	$167	69
3670 Woodruff Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+1%)	4mo	$159,500	$145	67
1317 Oakwood Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,018 (-7%)	4mo	$137,500	$135	66
3611 Woodruff Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,125 (+3%)	1mo	$175,000	$156	60
1518 Arling Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+5%)	2mo	$175,000	$153	57
4020 Parthenia Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-5%)	4mo	$142,500	$138	54
618 W Southern Heights Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-5%)	5mo	$152,500	$147	49
3801 Craig Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	958 (-12%)	1mo	$198,900	$208	49
1409 Arling Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	4mo	$136,250	$114	46
3723 Warren Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (-15%)	0mo	$90,000	$97	43
4024 Parthenia Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	4mo	$156,999	$127	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,376
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $26,227
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4046 Taylor Blvd Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	24d	1	0.12mi
1022 Stanley Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	21d	1	0.41mi
4122 Craig Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	705	$1,051	$1.49	12d	1	0.45mi
4113 La Salle Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	875	$1,249	$1.43	16d	1	0.49mi
3746 Kahlert Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	955	$1,350	$1.41	16d	1	0.51mi
4000 Churchman Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	16d	1	0.59mi
1517 Shingo Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,349	$1.23	24d	1	0.62mi
1105 Beecher St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	16d	1	0.62mi
3717 Wheeler Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,450	$1.29	24d	1	0.63mi
1507 Arling Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,275	$1.11	16d	1	0.67mi
4725 Southern Pkwy Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1296	$925	$0.71	3d	1	0.69mi
1118 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	771	$1,199	$1.56	24d	1	0.70mi
3655 Kahlert Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	915	$1,300	$1.42	12d	1	0.70mi
4626 Southern Pkwy Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	809	$895	$1.11	15d	3	0.73mi
910 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1186	$1,450	$1.22	12d	1	0.81mi
910 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1186	$1,450	$1.22	2d	1	0.81mi
4608 S 3rd St Unit 1st Floor Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	24d	1	0.85mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	24d	1	0.88mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Unit 2302-201 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	12d	1	0.88mi
3627 Parthenia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,245	$1.38	24d	1	0.90mi
4133 S 5th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,435	$1.20	16d	1	0.99mi
3523 Georgetown Pl #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	17d	1	1.03mi
1411 Sale Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$1,000	$1.07	16d	1	1.06mi
3513 Georgetown Pl Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$949	$1.19	24d	1	1.07mi
104 Kenwood Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	875	$985	$1.13	24d	1	1.08mi
551 Denmark St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1160	$1,700	$1.47	24d	1	1.08mi
3449 Powell Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.09mi
418 Marshall Walk Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	24d	1	1.10mi
118 E Ashland Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	910	$1,200	$1.32	24d	1	1.10mi
1709 Valley Forge Way Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	21d	1	1.11mi
1711 Valley Forge Way Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$949	$1.05	10d	1	1.12mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Unit 3530 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	886	$1,350	$1.52	3d	1	1.12mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,350	$1.97	15d	4	1.12mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,350	$1.97	24d	2	1.12mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	734	$1,050	$1.43	3d	1	1.12mi
5011 Southside Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,067	$1.33	24d	1	1.15mi
5011 Southside Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	2d	9	1.15mi
623 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	16d	1	1.17mi
615 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	884	$1,450	$1.64	24d	1	1.19mi
1522 Clara Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	24d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $109,900 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-05-22
   price $111,900
4. 2026-05-20
   price $112,900
5. 2026-05-13
   price $114,900
6. 2026-05-09
   price $115,900
7. 2026-05-07
   price $116,900
8. 2026-05-06
   price $117,900
9. 2026-05-02
   price $118,900
10. 2026-04-28
    listed $119,900 Active
11. 2026-04-17
    price $200,000
12. 2026-04-12
    price $124,900
13. 2026-04-08
    price $129,900
14. 2015-11-22
    historical
15. 2015-11-16
    listed $55,000 Active
16. 2015-11-15
    price $49,500
17. 2013-09-04
    soldstatus $27,836
18. 2013-06-04
    listed $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$1,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,532
• Household income: $43,725
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 33% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.35%
• Current HPI: 227.8248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.16%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+202.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $111,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $112,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $114,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $115,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $116,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $117,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $118,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $119,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $200,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $124,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $129,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2015-11-22 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2015-11-16 Listed $55,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2015-11-15 Price Changed $49,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-09-04 Sold (MLS) $27,836 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-06-04 Listed $37,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,331 · +52.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.