39 Coral Bell Holw Holw · Toms River, NJ 08755

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1970 3,500 sqft lot Est $291k · 14% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this unique cardinal model 3 bed 1.5 bath home on a comfortable cul-de-sac featuring a full walk-out basement. Interior features include a large eat-in kitchen, hardwood floors through out, heated sun rm, walk in shower, and a walk up floored attic space. Exterior features include a brand new awning that covers the front porch, kitchen side door ingress, rear cement patio, and solar panels available for lease or purchase. This is a terrific find in a quiet community that is convenient to parkway, routes 9 & 37, shopping and entertainment. A most affordable option for a select buyer eligible for an age restricted community at The Gardens of Pleasant Plains.

Key facts

• 3,500 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: Gardens of Pleasant Plains; Annual association fee of $300; Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Solar via a purchase power agreement
• Home design: Single-family model: CARDINAL PLUS/BSMT; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Basement: full (walk-out)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Creek on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor; One additional bedroom in the basement
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One full bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic fan; Walk-out full basement with sliding glass door access
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Basement laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $250k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.69%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Wall Cress Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-2%)	1mo	$279,000	$272	94
27 Coral Bell Holw	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,052 (+1%)	7mo	$185,000	$176	90
50 Golden Glow Circus	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,040 (0%)	5mo	$317,000	$305	88
44 Gardenia Way	0.13mi	2/1.0	966 (-7%)	3mo	$270,000	$280	79
49 Green Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-2%)	6mo	$180,000	$176	77
33 Gardenia Way	0.18mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	4mo	$253,000	$264	75
74 Fox Glove	0.10mi	2/1.0	916 (-12%)	1mo	$295,000	$322	74
95 Larkspur Ct	0.13mi	2/1.0	916 (-12%)	3mo	$193,500	$211	71
33 Sunflower Ln	0.27mi	2/1.0	966 (-7%)	7mo	$240,000	$248	69
16 Hare Bell Holw	0.24mi	2/1.0	916 (-12%)	3mo	$260,000	$284	67
61 Golden Glow Circus	0.12mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	7mo	$300,000	$335	66
28 Bellflower Ct	0.28mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	5mo	$251,000	$280	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,707
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $33,502
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,747/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,197

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13 Swain Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,199	$2.13	16d	1	0.52mi
1091 W Whitty Rd Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1758	$2,850	$1.62	1d	4	0.63mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	24d	1	0.93mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$1,994	$2.12	43d	1	0.93mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit D9 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	43d	1	0.96mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit A4 Toms River, NJ	1.0	2.0	990	$2,045	$2.07	43d	1	0.96mi
3600 Cypress Point Dr Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,964	$2.53	1d	18	1.11mi
30 Green View Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1450	$2,682	$1.85	1d	1	1.31mi
1732 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	1d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2026-04-03
   historical $250,000
4. 2026-02-21
   historical
5. 2026-02-21
   listed $250,000 Active
6. 2026-02-05
   historical
7. 1997-11-19
   soldstatus $70,000
8. 1988-11-18
   soldstatus $89,000
9. 1984-01-01
   soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,486 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,739/yr (+$145/mo · 63.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,747
• − Insurance: −$2,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,715
• − Management: −$2,715
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $2,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$513
• After-tax cash flow: $5,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+449.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $250,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $250,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1984-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,747 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.