11953 Noble Wood Village Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$225,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Alamo Management Group; Annual association fee of $400; Community playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Living area approximately 1,273; Built in 2026; Constructed with brick and cement siding
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $225,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $201,134.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,721 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,134
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11962 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	0mo	$224,990	$177	98
11982 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	0mo	$224,990	$177	97
11736 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	1mo	$212,440	$167	96
12002 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	1mo	$191,140	$150	90
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	78
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	76
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	76
12023 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$203,990	$145	72
11999 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$219,990	$156	72
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	71
12059 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	2mo	$223,990	$158	71
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $122,318
• Equity at exit: $181,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $335,500
• Equity at exit: $390,759

Cash invested: $56,318 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,055
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$251 /mo · $3,017/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $201,134

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,284
• Closing costs: $6,034
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.83mi
32626A Karen Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $225,990 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 635-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,990 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $223,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $223,990 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,990 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,990 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $228,990 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,990 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,990 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,990 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,990 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    price $228,990

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

17. 2026-05-22
    price $228,990 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

18. 2026-05-21
    listed $243,890 Active
19. 2026-05-19
    listed $243,890 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,017
• − Insurance: −$1,006
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,851
• Taxable income: $309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$74
• After-tax cash flow: $3,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home presents as move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The property offers a spacious open floorplan and modern design, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Improves the overall look and feel of the home
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Enhances functionality and appeal
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — Improves the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $228,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $228,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Listed $243,890 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $243,890 Zillow