61 Crestbriar Ct · Baytown, TX 77521

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1983 6,242 sqft lot Est $219k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Corner Lot Living with Space to Make It Your Own Welcome to this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on a desirable corner lot, offering both space and flexibility for everyday living. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout along with a versatile bonus room—perfect for a home office, hobby space, or guest area to suit your needs. The corner location provides added privacy, extra yard space, and room for outdoor enjoyment, whether you envision a garden, play area, or entertaining space. Great opportunity to transform this home into something special. Property is in need of repairs and updates but offers plenty of potential.

Key facts

• Extra yard space
• Bonus room
• Outdoor enjoyment

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BONUS ROOM
• EXTRA YARD SPACE
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1983
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Fence; Corner lot; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 14x14; Bedroom (first level) — 13x12; Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Stone
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Laminate counters; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first level) — 11x5

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($346/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett El (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 628 students, 75% FRL); Cedar Bayou J H (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 969 students, 81% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 61% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $130k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4102 Longhorn Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (-4%)	2mo	$235,000	$167	77
1104 Sagebrush Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (+6%)	4mo	$315,000	$203	68
913 Briarcreek Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+14%)	3mo	$205,000	$123	68
1306 Apache Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+4%)	9mo	$239,000	$157	62
4502 Adobe Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (-6%)	6mo	$150,000	$109	58
4001 Stoneybrook St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+0%)	5mo	$199,000	$136	56
4201 Tumbleweed Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	1mo	$244,000	$153	55
1403 Packsaddle Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+9%)	4mo	$239,000	$150	54
3930 Tumbleweed Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (-11%)	1mo	$239,900	$185	54
3703 Stoneybrook St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-5%)	0mo	$179,000	$129	52
4505 Chaparral Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+14%)	2mo	$239,000	$143	47
705 Littlewood St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	9mo	$132,000	$85	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-21,266
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-24,308
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,805/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $66	+0% $29	+5% $-8	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-29	+0% $29	+5% $87	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $62	base $29	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4313 Lariat Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,713	$1.11	7d	1	0.63mi
700 Meadowglen Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	26d	1	0.67mi
700 Meadowglen Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	0d	1	0.67mi
99 W Cedar Bayou Lynchburg Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,748	$1.70	0d	16	0.86mi
4925 N Main St Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,550	$1.31	45d	1	0.93mi
619 Rollingbrook Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,444	$1.58	0d	33	0.93mi
10960 Bradford Way Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	933	$1,290	$1.38	45d	1	0.94mi
1706 Bob Smith Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	45d	1	0.98mi
305 Kelly Ln Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,000	$0.61	17d	1	1.16mi
3409 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	920	$950	$1.03	45d	1	1.40mi
1525 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,250	$1.12	26d	1	1.44mi
1519 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	1.46mi
2104 James Bowie Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	997	$1,350	$1.35	45d	1	1.47mi
1512 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,200	$1.08	45d	1	1.48mi
2399 James Bowie Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	20d	1	1.48mi
2399 James Bowie Dr Unit APG Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	26d	1	1.48mi
1510 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,100	$1.09	45d	1	1.48mi
1507 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,075	$1.00	45d	1	1.49mi
1717 James Bowie Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $129,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,805 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,805 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$4,805
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$396
• After-tax cash flow: $742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+138.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 1996-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,805 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.