314 Goddard Ave · Rio Communities, NM 87002

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1972 1.02 ac lot Est $268k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ideal 3/2 family home on a large lot. 2 car garage, and large attached cover/carport for outdoor patio or working area. Excellent opportunity for investors.

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with workshop; 2 garage spaces; Carport (4 spaces); RV access/parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Resale property; Double-wide mobile home body type
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Tar and gravel roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Private yard; Landscaped lot; Covered arena; Back yard fencing with gate (full enclosure)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central forced-air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Double-pane insulated vinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($884/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Rio Communities — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#191 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,806 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,392
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Hillandale Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,888 (+12%)	3mo	$240,000	$127	74
305 Gorman Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-9%)	3mo	$245,000	$159	72
90 Moraga St	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (-12%)	0mo	$230,000	$155	68
342 Goddard Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-9%)	10mo	$279,900	$182	65
444 Aquina Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$151	50
92 Horner St	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-15%)	15mo	$250,000	$174	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,630
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,325
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87002

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,032/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1099 Carmel Rd Rio Communities, NM	2.0	2.0	1877	$1,700	$0.91	21d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,592 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$560/yr (+$47/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,032
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$613
• After-tax cash flow: $1,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belen Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500180
• Math proficiency: 19% —
• Reading proficiency: 28% —
• Median HH income: $38,445
• Composite: 22.79/100
• National rank: #13408
• State rank: #50 of 95 in NM

Livability — Rio Communities

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #22989

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Communities, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 21,265
• Household income: $51,961
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 31% Two or more races 28% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.62%
• Current HPI: 219.5581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $199,000 Southwest MLS
• 2003-04-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,032 · +26.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.