8305 S Green Valley Rd · Willow Valley, AZ 86440

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1984 6,098 sqft lot Est $299k · 33% under $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with inviting living and dining areas. Immaculately clean, well-maintained, and boasting stunning backyard mountain views with a fenced yard. Move-in ready and waiting for your personal touch. Located in the desirable Willow Valley Community, offering a private beach marina on the Colorado River and a vibrant clubhouse with plenty of activities for members. Septic Passed

Key facts

• Private beach marina
• Fenced yard
• Vibrant clubhouse

Tags

• BACKYARD MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FENCED YARD
• PRIVATE BEACH MARINA
• VIBRANT CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1 Single-Family Residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee (about $127/year); Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; Faces east
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard and front yard fencing (chain link); Paved road access; Has a view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Vaulted ceilings; Window coverings; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#170 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Colorado River Union High School District (4381) (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #213 of 249 in AZ (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,052
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8314 S Walnut Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-2%)	3mo	$225,000	$180	78
8278 S Green Valley Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+10%)	2mo	$168,000	$120	73
8286 S Green Valley Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,434 (+12%)	2mo	$410,000	$286	70
1086 E Mulberry Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,447 (+13%)	9mo	$339,000	$234	56
8297 S Spruce Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,434 (+12%)	24mo	$275,000	$192	50
8105 S Green Valley Rd	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,435 (+12%)	11mo	$355,000	$247	48
8106 Evergreen Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+13%)	21mo	$345,000	$240	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $123,339
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $351,590
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86440

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $610/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $285	+0% $229	+5% $172	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $157	+0% $229	+5% $300	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $279	base $229	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7866 S Meadowlark St Mohave Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	14d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Active
2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-24
   price $199,990
4. 2026-04-16
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $610 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 116.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$610
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$147
• After-tax cash flow: $2,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colorado River Union High School District (4381)
• NCES district ID: 0400082
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,132
• Composite: 12.72/100
• National rank: #9603
• State rank: #213 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Willow Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #18589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 8,403

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.05%
• Current HPI: 322.7772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2026-05-04 Pending — WARDEX
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $199,990 WARDEX
• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,900 WARDEX

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $610 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.