22280 Victory Dr · South Brooksville, FL 34601

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 997 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $112k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 22280 Victory Dr & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; a rare opportunity to own a home in the highly desirable Wesleyan community of Brooksville. This well-maintained home offers a peaceful setting with strong community values, making it ideal for buyers seeking both comfort and connection. ? Key Features: 2 bedrooms / 2 bathrooms 997 sq ft of living space Bright, open living areas Quiet, established neighborhood ?? Community Highlights: Located within a respected Wesleyan community Serene environment with a strong sense of community Convenient access to Brooksville amenities, shopping, and major routes ?? Location: Situated in Brooksville, Florida, offering a blend of sma

Key facts

• Built 1988
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.9% in South Brooksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#584 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moton Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 679 students, 79% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 498 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $115k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.90%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,664
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Kings Cir	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-2%)	0mo	$78,000	$80	58
900 Wood Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-2%)	14mo	$110,000	$112	47
7 Kings Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,034 (+4%)	17mo	$204,000	$197	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,056
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-637
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34601

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 498
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,029

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $271	+0% $239	+5% $206	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $186	+0% $239	+5% $291	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $297	-0.5pp $268	base $239	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	2.0	1.0	761	$1,395	$1.83	19d	1	0.79mi
87 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	2.0	1.0	761	$1,295	$1.70	6d	1	0.80mi
131 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	2.0	1.0	761	$1,395	$1.83	6d	1	0.81mi
181 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$1,395	$1.95	14d	4	0.81mi
109 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	2.0	1.0	761	$1,299	$1.71	19d	1	0.81mi
105 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	2.0	1.0	761	$1,395	$1.83	6d	1	0.81mi
253 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	1.0	1.0	667	$1,275	$1.91	26d	1	0.81mi
265 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	1.0	1.0	667	$1,229	$1.84	26d	1	0.82mi
199 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	2.0	1.0	761	$1,395	$1.83	6d	1	0.82mi
222 Dryden Pl Brooksville, FL	1.0	1.0	667	$1,275	$1.91	6d	1	0.86mi
203 D St Brooksville, FL	3.0	1.0	748	$1,600	$2.14	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2014-11-25
    soldstatus $75,000
18. 2008-01-03
    soldstatus $62,500
19. 2004-09-29
    soldstatus $49,000
20. 2000-08-14
    soldstatus $42,500
21. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,278
• − Management: −$1,278
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,114
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $2,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Brooksville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #584
• US rank: #11158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Brooksville, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,115
• Household income: $60,440
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 664.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.68%
• Current HPI: 313.4695
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+194.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $115,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2004-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.