2518 Hermansau St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1894 8,712 sqft lot Est $79k · 39% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home on Hermansau! This beautifully renovated property features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, and is move-in ready. Recent upgrades include a new furnace and ductwork installed in 2026, an updated electrical service with a new pole, improved plumbing, and a brand-new water heater and water service from the street.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1894
• Listed 79 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in LINE OFPAUL NUERMINGERS ADDITION subdivision; Cross streets: Ash St and Reed St
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,430
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 170; Lot size about 0.2 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Has basement; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $109k implies a 1262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1894 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $102,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1894 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2023 Schaefer St	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,430 (0%)	4mo	$126,000	$88	73
2338 N Bond St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-9%)	1mo	$77,000	$59	71
814 Ash St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+12%)	6mo	$60,000	$38	67
1923 N Oakley St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-6%)	4mo	$20,000	$15	60
815 W Genesee Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,305 (-9%)	5mo	$72,000	$55	57
2206 N Bond St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+10%)	7mo	$85,000	$54	56
603 Davenport Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (-14%)	2mo	$60,000	$49	51
1710 State St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,358 (-5%)	6mo	$75,000	$55	51
1933 Delaware St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,539 (+8%)	3mo	$51,000	$33	48
2917 N Michigan Ave	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,609 (+12%)	4mo	$125,000	$78	46
2456 Barnard St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+13%)	2mo	$145,000	$90	46
1420 Union Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,218 (-15%)	8mo	$45,000	$37	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,266
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $19,005
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $895

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $239	+0% $208	+5% $177	+10% $146
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $162	+0% $208	+5% $254	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $236	base $208	+0.5pp $180	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $109,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    price $114,900 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Welcome to your new home on Hermansau! This beautifully renovated property features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, and is move-in ready. Recent upgrades include a new furnace and ductwork installed in 2026, an updated electrical service with a new pole, improved plumbing, and a brand-new water heater and water service from the street.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $114,900
19. 2026-03-31
    listed $119,900 Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Welcome to your new home on Hermansau! This beautifully renovated property features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, and is move-in ready. Recent upgrades include a new furnace and ductwork installed in 2026, an updated electrical service with a new pole, improved plumbing, and a brand-new water heater and water service from the street.

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Welcome to your new home on Hermansau! This beautifully renovated property features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, and is move-in ready. Recent upgrades include a new furnace and ductwork installed in 2026, an updated electrical service with a new pole, improved plumbing, and a brand-new water heater and water service from the street.

21. 2007-06-01
    historical
22. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus $8,000
23. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus $8,000
24. 2007-04-09
    listed $8,900
25. 2007-04-09
    listed $8,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,377 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$186
• After-tax cash flow: $2,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1191.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-31 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-31 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-06-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-05-30 Sold (MLS) $8,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-05-30 Sold (MLS) $8,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-04-09 Listed $8,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-04-09 Listed $8,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,076 · -30.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.