4709 Maegans Ridge Rd · Panama City, FL 32404

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2022 6,490 sqft lot Est $329k · 27% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• 6,490 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-632/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,715 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,671
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5627 Frank Hough Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+1%)	1mo	$307,000	$175	92
4706 Maegans Ridge Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,719 (-1%)	8mo	$349,900	$204	90
4704 Shannon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-2%)	11mo	$295,000	$173	83
5435 Blue Dog Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,726 (-1%)	7mo	$314,000	$182	82
5422 Blue Dog Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,673 (-4%)	5mo	$285,000	$170	82
5431 Nicole Blvd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-2%)	5mo	$311,000	$182	81
4918 Mccall Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-10%)	1mo	$305,000	$194	75
4823 Mccall Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,928 (+11%)	2mo	$320,000	$166	71
5007 Merritt Brown Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,667 (-4%)	9mo	$315,000	$189	69
5415 Frank Hough Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (-10%)	9mo	$305,000	$194	64
5416 Nicole Blvd	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (-8%)	10mo	$307,500	$192	62
5429 Blue Dog Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-14%)	10mo	$288,000	$192	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-46,077
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-59,575
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,790/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $230,693

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $15	+0% $-53	+5% $-121	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-136	+0% $-53	+5% $30	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $8	base $-53	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5284 Emma Grace Dr Panama City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2069	$2,081	$1.01	15d	1	0.35mi
4800 N Star Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,623	$1.67	15d	10	0.52mi
6416 Bellavia Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,100	$1.16	15d	1	1.14mi
5057 Windrow Way Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,300	$1.28	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-07-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-02
   listed $240,000 Active
3. 2025-06-21
   historical $1,950
4. 2025-06-05
   listed $1,950
5. 2022-10-31
   soldstatus $344,556 Closed 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

6. 2022-09-23
   status Pending 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

7. 2022-09-14
   price $344,556 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

8. 2022-07-19
   price $349,556 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

9. 2022-04-12
   price $349,506 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

10. 2022-03-10
    price $344,507 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

11. 2022-03-07
    price $345,506 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

12. 2021-08-20
    listed $342,506 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    * Can accommodate a quick close!! This beauty is ready for you to call HOME!! Awesome 3 bedroom/2 bath/2 car garage. Sprinkler system, fully sodded yard, garage opener, Large Living Room, A huge Master Bedroom that is split from the guest bedrooms, a large guest bathroom and so much more! This is the last one of its kind! Don't miss this opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,790 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,790 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,790
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,127
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-29.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Rental Removed $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-06-05 Listed for Rent $1,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $344,556 CPARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $344,556 CPARMLS
• 2022-07-19 Price Changed $349,556 CPARMLS
• 2022-04-12 Price Changed $349,506 CPARMLS
• 2022-03-10 Price Changed $344,507 CPARMLS
• 2022-03-07 Price Changed $345,506 CPARMLS
• 2021-08-20 Listed $342,506 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+110.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,790 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.