Oakdale Plan · Sunbury, OH 43021

$404,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,893 sqft · SingleFamily · 738 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find everything you need with the spacious Oakdale new home plan with its large front flex room and connected gathering and kitchen with included island, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you will find two bedrooms and a large Owner's Suite with huge walk-in closet and double sinks. This plan is also popular for its large upstairs laundry room.

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Huge walk-in closet
• Large owner's suite

Tags

• LARGE FRONT FLEX ROOM
• LARGE OWNER'S SUITE
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS
• LARGE UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $404,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $477,919.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-933 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.7% in Sunbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#274 in OH, #4,498 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Olentangy Local (rural): math 81% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #18 of 656 in OH (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Johnnycake Corners Elementary School (math 81% / reading 83%, grade A+, #116 of 1,584 statewide, top 9%, 686 students, 2% FRL); Berkshire Middle School (math 80% / reading 80%, grade A+, #46 of 654 statewide, top 7%, 1,298 students, 4% FRL); Olentangy High School (math 76% / reading 90%, grade A, #21 of 781 statewide, top 3%, 1,688 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,233 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (304 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Delaware County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 738 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $299,926 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 738 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.37%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,919
• List price: $404,990
• Delta: -15.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1245 Steller Dr Lot 2576	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,893 (0%)	2mo	$487,900	$258	86
1155 S Three B's & K Rd	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,978 (+4%)	1mo	$599,900	$303	83
1518 Crest Dr Lot 2527	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,979 (+4%)	8mo	$455,000	$230	78
1094 Solitary St Lot 2589	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,965 (+4%)	2mo	$439,900	$224	76
1315 Red Tail Pl Lot 2563	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,126 (+12%)	6mo	$417,900	$197	68
1415 Crest Dr Lot 2598	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,108 (+11%)	0mo	$470,000	$223	67
1324 Red Tail Pl Lot 2533	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-13%)	5mo	$437,900	$266	64
1510 Crest Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,126 (+12%)	10mo	$491,930	$231	63
1126 Solitary St Lot 2593	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,126 (+12%)	0mo	$459,990	$216	63
1478 Crest Dr Lot 2572	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,126 (+12%)	8mo	$450,000	$212	63
1455 Crest Dr Lot 2604	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,126 (+12%)	6mo	$450,000	$212	62
1086 Solitary St Lot 2588	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,126 (+12%)	1mo	$444,900	$209	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-136,846
• Equity at exit: $71,259

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-195,527
• Equity at exit: $41,322

Cash invested: $133,817 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43021

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,506
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$597 /mo · $7,169/yr
• Insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,181

Max offer price $342,858

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-603	-5% $-768	+0% $-933	+5% $-1,099	+10% $-1,264
Rent	-10% $-1,170	-5% $-1,052	+0% $-933	+5% $-815	+10% $-696
Rate	-1.0pp $-693	-0.5pp $-812	base $-933	+0.5pp $-1,057	+1.0pp $-1,183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,480
• Closing costs: $14,338
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1155 S 3 Bs and K Rd Galena, OH	4.0	2.5	1978	$3,290	$1.66	25d	1	0.19mi
166 Caldy Knoll Dr Sunbury, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,960	$2.06	0d	1	0.96mi
7125 Sea Breeze Dr W Sunbury, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,998	$2.10	0d	1	1.28mi
7205 Northlake Summit Dr Sunbury, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1158	$1,832	$1.58	0d	26	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $404,990 Active 738 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $404,990 Active 735 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $404,990 Active 734 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $404,990 Active 733 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $404,990 Active 732 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $404,990 Active 730 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $404,990 Active 729 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $404,990 Active 726 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $404,990 Active 725 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $404,990 Active 724 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $404,990 Active 721 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $404,990 Active 720 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $404,990 Active 719 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $404,990 Active 718 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,990 Active 717 DOM
16. 2025-01-29
    price $404,990 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Find everything you need with the spacious Oakdale new home plan with its large front flex room and connected gathering and kitchen with included island, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you will find two bedrooms and a large Owner's Suite with huge walk-in closet and double sinks. This plan is also popular for its large upstairs laundry room.

17. 2025-01-23
    price $402,990 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Find everything you need with the spacious Oakdale new home plan with its large front flex room and connected gathering and kitchen with included island, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you will find two bedrooms and a large Owner's Suite with huge walk-in closet and double sinks. This plan is also popular for its large upstairs laundry room.

18. 2025-01-04
    price $401,990 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Find everything you need with the spacious Oakdale new home plan with its large front flex room and connected gathering and kitchen with included island, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you will find two bedrooms and a large Owner's Suite with huge walk-in closet and double sinks. This plan is also popular for its large upstairs laundry room.

19. 2024-06-14
    listed $399,990 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Find everything you need with the spacious Oakdale new home plan with its large front flex room and connected gathering and kitchen with included island, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you will find two bedrooms and a large Owner's Suite with huge walk-in closet and double sinks. This plan is also popular for its large upstairs laundry room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,771
• − Property taxes: −$7,169
• − Insurance: −$2,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,879
• − Management: −$2,879
• − Depreciation: −$13,903
• Taxable loss: −$20,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olentangy Local
• NCES district ID: 3904676
• Math proficiency: 81% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $111,074
• Composite: 75.56/100
• National rank: #132
• State rank: #18 of 656 in OH

Livability — Sunbury

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #274
• US rank: #4498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sunbury, OH
• County: Delaware · 221,676 people
• City population: 16,873
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• Population (ZIP): 14,855
• Household income: $160,120
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 0.7

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,854 people
• By 2030: 249,294 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 284,223 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 315,314 · +36.6%
• By 2075: 379,462 · +64.4%
• By 2100: 403,158 · +74.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.6) · D 46.2% · R 52.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.0pp toward D · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -6.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+23.7 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.82%
• Current HPI: 239.1812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $404,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $402,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $401,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-14 Listed $399,990 Zillow